According to economist Fu Peng, Bitcoin has evolved from a crypto-native speculative asset into a standard financial asset whose price increasingly reflects changes in global liquidity, funding costs and investor risk appetite. Bitcoin's position near $63,000 on August 2, 2026 roughly half its previous record high has renewed debate over its role as a leading indicator of global liquidity. The debate comes as investors reassess the sustainability of the AI spending boom, with big tech companies still investing heavily in data centers, chips, power and cloud infrastructure, but rising costs putting pressure on free cash flow. Unlike company shares, Bitcoin's valuation cannot be derived from quarterly earnings, dividends or future cash-flow projections, while its fixed issuance schedule does not adjust to short-term changes in demand.
According to reports from AMBCrypto, Global M2 money supply jumped by roughly $1 trillion in a single week, with China accounting for approximately 80% of that increase, or $800 billion. The remaining portion came from other economies globally. Global M2 supply captures cash and liquid deposits worldwide and acts as a primary liquidity source for risk assets, including stocks, crypto, and real estate. Expanding M2 can push money into these sectors, while contracting M2 typically weighs on them. Liquidity research by Lyn Alden Investment Strategy covering 2013 to 2024 found that Bitcoin moved in the same direction as global liquidity during approximately 83% of 12-month periods and 74% of six-month periods, while the relationship became less reliable over shorter horizons.
A slowdown in AI capital expenditure could initially create downside pressure for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market if investors interpret it as evidence that the technology investment cycle is weakening. Reuters reported on June 5, 2026, that four major semiconductor exchange-traded funds had attracted approximately $21 billion in 2026, while regulated spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded around $3.1 billion in net outflows over the comparable year-to-date period. The contrast illustrated how strongly investment capital had favored the AI trade and how much relative demand for Bitcoin had weakened. However, an orderly AI capex slowdown could reduce pressure on Big Tech free cash flow and support capital rotation into Bitcoin, particularly if Bitcoin valuations appear more attractive after a deep correction. The outcome would depend heavily on whether the slowdown is caused by more efficient hardware, better data-center utilization, or stronger cost discipline, rather than sudden project cancellations following weak demand.
According to AMBCrypto, China led the recent Global M2 surge as one of its largest contributors, yet it had limited exposure to Bitcoin. Hong Kong Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds absorbed just 48.1 BTC since August began, worth roughly $3.057 million. Hong Kong capital has historically reached Bitcoin through official channels in thin amounts, pointing to a limited Bitcoin impact from China's M2-driven liquidity surge. Mainland China remained hostile to cryptocurrency and largely banned the asset class, further limiting potential flows from the region.
As reported by AMBCrypto, U.S. flow remained the key factor to watch for Bitcoin, with the country's money supply expanding against M2 readings from other economies. The latest U.S. money-supply figure reached $23.16 trillion. The Global M2 surge helped U.S. crypto ETFs record their strongest weekly inflow since April 17, 2026, with weekly inflows across crypto ETFs reaching roughly $1.10 billion. Bitcoin can diverge from global M2 when crypto-specific selling outweighs the supportive effect of monetary expansion, with spot ETF outflows, regulatory uncertainty, corporate or miner sales, and leveraged liquidations all weakening demand for BTC. The strongest potential backdrop for Bitcoin would be a controlled cooling of AI investment that reduces financing pressure without causing a severe equity sell-off, while the least favorable scenario would combine collapsing capex with tighter credit and forced deleveraging across risk markets.
