The S&P 500 posted its ninth consecutive weekly gain on Friday, marking the longest such streak since 2023 and a run matched only a handful of times in the past four decades, putting the index up almost 20% from its March lows. Brent crude settled around $92 a barrel and Treasuries climbed on the week, trimming some of their war-driven losses. The macro tailwind has come on hopes the U.S. and Iran will sign off on a 60-day ceasefire extension, with President Donald Trump saying Friday he was ready to make a "final determination" on a preliminary agreement. However, the macro rally remains vulnerable to setbacks in Iran deal talks, as Trump restated his demand that any deal require Iran to abandon its nuclear program, surrender its enriched uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the record-breaking stock performance, major cryptocurrencies lagged the macro rally, with bitcoin, ether and other large-cap tokens falling around 2% to 6% amid cooling spot bitcoin ETF inflows. According to CoinDesk data, bitcoin slipped 2.6% over the past seven days to $73,445, ether 2.5% to $2,011, solana (SOL) 2.2% to $82.42 and TRON's TRX 5.6%, its worst weekly drop in the top 10. The exception was the smaller side of the leaderboard, where Hyperliquid's HYPE token ripped 19.4% on the week to $65 as sentiment for the asset continues to grow. Intercontinental Exchange chief Jeffrey Sprecher praised the decentralized perpetuals venue at a Bernstein conference and calling it "bigger than NASDAQ." BNB closed up 1.9% and XRP eked out a 0.7% weekly gain, showing that smaller tokens were a bright spot in an otherwise lackluster crypto performance.
The recent US military strikes on Iranian targets have revived concerns over supply disruptions and driven oil prices higher. As reported by Bloomberg, the tentative 60-day extension of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire pressured oil markets but failed to generate a sustained crypto rally. The US government, under the Trump administration, is negotiating to take equity stakes in domestic drone manufacturers to accelerate production, reduce costs, and lessen dependence on Chinese drone components. Javier Martinez, CEO at sFOX, noted that the market had already priced in a relief rally on the ceasefire news, and the trade unwound when bitcoin failed to break higher. The cryptocurrency market's muted response to geopolitical developments suggests institutional investors are now looking past Tehran headlines toward regulatory clarity.
Institutional investors are now focusing on U.S. crypto market structure legislation like the CLARITY Act rather than macro headlines. According to Martinez, institutional buyers are waiting on regulatory confirmation, not just macro improvement. Analysts at FxPro noted that bitcoin has fallen below its 50-day moving average and the longer-running 200-day average is sloping lower, a crossover that has tended to mark stretches of broader weakness. The Swissblock reported that bitcoin has slipped into a 'high-risk zone' amid selling pressure and fading bid from spot bitcoin ETFs, which powered much of the 2024-2025 rally.
Bitcoin is trading around $73,445, roughly 10% below its recent highs, as on-chain data shows record long-term holder supply that may signal weak market turnover rather than strong conviction. According to CryptoQuant, short-term holder supply has dropped by about 2.2 million BTC since December, with more coins simply moving to long-term holders. The analysis suggests that softer ETF demand and a market no longer trading every Iran headline leave crypto without an obvious near-term driver. For ETH, technical indicators show the short-to-medium-term outlook remains heavily bearish with the price below key moving averages and RSI near oversold territory. The first major support level of $1,800 could be targeted by bears, while bulls must first break the immediate $2,000 resistance to return to higher price levels.
