Bitcoin has pulled back toward $81,150 after briefly testing $82,000 on September 4, failing to hold above the psychological resistance level. According to crypto.news data, the cryptocurrency traded near $81,150 at the time of writing, having retreated about 1% from its local high but still maintaining levels well above the $80,000 mark reclaimed during the previous session. The pullback came after Bitcoin moved out of a range around $77,000–$79,000 and short sellers were forced to close leveraged positions as the price crossed $80,000, adding automatic buy orders to the market. The rally accelerated following a drop in expectations for another US interest-rate increase in September, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaling policymakers could keep rates unchanged if incoming inflation data confirms price pressures are cooling. However, Bitcoin encountered selling pressure around its 365-Day Moving Average at $82,268, with Thursday's rally stalling near that exact level before recording a minor pullback.
Friday's market reaction was swift and mechanical, with total liquidations reaching approximately $500 million during the rally, with short positions accounting for about $415 million of those losses according to CoinGlass data. Bitcoin longs were liquidated for $138 million, suggesting the market was positioned aggressively before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish tone. Warsh delivered a more hawkish assessment than anticipated, noting that core PCE inflation has run at 3.7% over the past 12 months and 4.1% over the past six months, both well above the Fed's 2% target. He stated that current financial conditions are "not restrictive," a direct signal that the Fed sees room to tighten further, saying "We have more work to do." Polymarket's rate-hike probability contract jumped from below 50% to 68% within hours, while market-implied September rate-cut odds fell from roughly 88% to 40%. Despite reduced expectations of a September rate hike, the 15th of September could see high volatility with both the FOMC meeting and the U.S. Senate vote regarding the CLARITY Act scheduled for mid-September.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs provided significant support for the recent rally, with the products recording $730.8 million in combined net inflows on September 3, marking a sharp improvement from mixed flows recorded at the beginning of the month according to Galaxy Research data cited by analyst Quinten François. The move followed softer US private employment figures, with ADP reporting weaker job growth than economists expected, adding to the view that the Fed may have less room to tighten monetary policy further. Galaxy Research data shared by François placed Bitcoin's 50-week moving average near $81,041, almost level with the current market price, noting that Bitcoin has not closed a weekly candle above that moving average since November 2025. François said a move through $82,800 would also produce the first higher high of the broader downtrend and bring $90,000 back into consideration. However, onchain metrics showed signs that the Bitcoin rally might be cooling, with the Apparent Demand metric tracking the difference between newly-mined BTC issuance and the change in supply inactive for over a year showing less demand, reflecting stalling accumulation near key swing resistance levels.
Technical analysis reveals mixed signals as Bitcoin approaches key resistance levels. The daily chart shows Bitcoin has recovered above its major moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average at $75,700, 50-day at $68,845, and 100-day at $66,450, while the 200-day moving average sits near $69,665. The 4-hour relative strength index reached 67.3, just below the conventional overbought threshold of 70, with the upper Bollinger Band standing near $82,034. The daily Aroon Up reading reached 92.86%, while Aroon Down fell to zero, indicating that a recent high occurred much more recently than a fresh low. However, the 24-hour CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows dense groups of leveraged positions between approximately $81,700 and $82,300, with a larger concentration of liquidity visible below the market between $79,800 and $80,300. A CryptoQuant report noted that historically, bull runs have begun once the 365DMA is breached, but Bitcoin was unable to flip the 365-day moving average at $82,268 to support, adding to concerns about the current rally's sustainability.
Market analysts continue to emphasize that $76,000 remains a key level to watch despite Bitcoin's recent bullishness. Analyst Dami-Defi noted that Bitcoin had reclaimed a weekly exponential moving-average ribbon extending roughly from $71,000 to $78,000, with weekly closes above $78,000 preserving the improved structure. The immediate bullish case requires Bitcoin to close above the 50-week moving average near $81,000 and clear the local high around $82,800, exposing $84,000, followed by the wider resistance zone between $95,000 and $96,000. However, May's $82,850 swing high remained another obstacle for bulls, with weakening demand around $82,000 potentially triggering a deeper retracement. The Bitcoin Capital and Flow Regime Index has been at its maximum level for six consecutive days, a bear market regime signal that has historically followed price declines. A break below $75.5k could expose $70.2k, followed by $66.9k, with Bitcoin facing an unusual disconnect where ETF capital is returning while broader demand indicators continue to retreat.
