Bitcoin has retreated toward $64,550 as of Wednesday, down nearly 2% on the day as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. According to The Block, the cryptocurrency is now trading below $65,000 as investors stay on the sidelines awaiting clarity on the U.S.-Iran agreement and the Fed's updated economic projections. The pullback comes as markets see little chance of a signal that cuts are imminent, with headline inflation climbing to 4.2% year-over-year, the highest level in more than three years. As per Capital.com, markets are pricing roughly 60% chance of a rate hike by year-end, with the Fed likely to remove an explicit easing bias from its statement.
Bitcoin's recent rebound from below $60,000 has stalled near a major technical resistance zone. On the daily chart, BTC has returned to a support-turned-resistance region between roughly $65,200 and $65,800, which previously acted as a key floor during February and March before breaking during the sharp selloff earlier this month. According to analyst Kamile Uray, the market is now closely watching whether support around $63,700 can hold, stating "In deep declines, we will be tracking the 60000 level. This level must be held. Otherwise, the decline deepens further." On the positive side, Uray noted that $67,500 remains the first major resistance zone, while a sustained move above $74,500 would be required to restore a stronger bullish structure. Meanwhile, CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show a dense concentration of leveraged positions sitting above current prices, with crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades noting that $68K is the biggest level to watch in the short term.
Kevin Warsh chairs his debut FOMC meeting today with rates almost certain to stay at 3.50%-3.75%, but faces a difficult test as his reputation as a dovish, rate-cut-inclined chair now collides with a shifting backdrop. According to QCP Capital, Warsh must navigate headline inflation at 4.2% year-over-year alongside a divided Fed board wary of the Trump administration's influence over monetary policy. The firm noted that Chair Warsh must secure buy-in from the board as much as about the rate decision itself, with markets pricing roughly half a percentage point of hikes for 2026. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda noted that Wall Street was de-risking heading into the decision, with crude oil falling on reports that the U.S. will lift sanctions on Iranian oil as part of the broader peace process. A dovish tone from the Fed could improve risk appetite and help Bitcoin break above the $68,000 resistance.
Bitcoin's underperformance against a broader risk-on rally has been driven in part by concerns that Strategy may need to sell more bitcoin to fund its dividend payments, with Bitfinex flagging the same STRC mechanism as a real-time gauge of weakening corporate demand. Strategy has since raised roughly $200 million by selling MSTR shares and used the proceeds to keep buying bitcoin, extending its runway to fund STRC dividends to approximately 7.5 months before it runs out of cash. STRC closed at $91.79 on June 16, a fresh low more than 8% below its $100 par, pushing its market yield to roughly 12.5% against an 11.5% coupon. Bitfinex analysts noted that "the asset is stabilizing; the machinery that buys it is not," arguing the bounce in spot bitcoin is living on borrowed time without the corporate treasury and ETF complexes both firing.
According to SoSoValue, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds drew $10.1 million in net inflows on June 16, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $16.4 million, while spot ether (ETH) ETFs took in $9.6 million, led by BlackRock's ETHA with $17.3 million. However, Bitfinex analysts pointed to a widening divergence beneath the price action, noting that open interest was flushed from an October 2025 peak above $90 billion to around $42.6 billion by the end of May and has not rebuilt through the bounce. The firm also noted that the open-interest-weighted funding rate has pivoted back into positive territory, signaling leveraged long positioning is re-engaging even as spot demand stays muted. As per Glassnode's weekly report, spot volume has collapsed by 40.4% over the past week, casting doubt on the current bounce's strength.
