Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 on June 12 as improving market sentiment and bullish technical signals challenged a recent Galaxy Digital forecast that the cryptocurrency may not bottom until the fourth quarter. The rebound comes just days after Galaxy Digital's head of research Alex Thorn warned that Bitcoin's correction may have further to run despite recovering from its June low near $59,000. Current market data suggests traders are increasingly positioning for recovery rather than another sharp leg lower, with Bitcoin forming a series of higher lows since bouncing from the June trough near $59,173. The cryptocurrency is now pressing against resistance around $64,900, which coincides with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the recent decline, with a breakout potentially exposing resistance zones near $66,700 and $68,500.
Market commentator BATMAN highlighted the developing setup on X, noting that Bitcoin is forming a "textbook inverse Head & Shoulders beneath descending resistance." According to the analyst, a breakout above the neckline could trigger the next expansion higher. Momentum indicators show early signs of stabilization, with the Chaikin Money Flow indicator moving back above zero on the 4-hour chart, signaling renewed capital inflows, while the daily MACD histogram has begun to contract from recent lows, suggesting bearish momentum may be losing strength. Bitcoin's open interest rose 0.12% over the past day to $46.13 billion, while the weighted funding rate remained positive at 0.0029%, indicating traders are adding positions while maintaining a modest bullish bias rather than aggressively betting on further downside.
Galaxy Research's Alex Thorn reached the opposite conclusion, anchoring his thesis to Bitcoin halvings that cut new supply every four years. Galaxy found that only four of the 13 signals that marked every prior bottom have triggered, with the current 51% decline remaining far milder than the 77% to 85% drops that ended past cycles. The report notes that past bottoms arrived 12 to 13 months after each top, and this cycle sits just eight months past its October peak, placing the historical window closer to late 2026. Galaxy's base case puts the floor between $40,000 and $46,000, arriving by late 2026, with the firm seeing a shallow bear market ending around $51,000 to $54,000, a base-case bottom between $40,000 and $46,000, and a harsher washout that could drag Bitcoin into the $30,000 to $39,000 range. Thorn's analysis argues that several historical capitulation signals remain absent, including the widespread investor losses and panic selling that often accompany major cycle bottoms.
Institutional demand remains mixed according to SoSoValue data, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recording $19.03 million in net outflows on June 11. While BlackRock's IBIT attracted $30.26 million of fresh capital, those inflows were outweighed by withdrawals from products managed by Fidelity, Ark Invest, Bitwise, and VanEck. The ETF data partly supports Galaxy's cautious stance, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs losing roughly $4.3 billion across the record ETF outflow streak of 13 straight sessions. However, the market's recent behavior paints a more balanced picture, as Bitcoin has defended the key $59,000 support region and derivatives traders are gradually increasing exposure, with ETF outflows and cycle data keeping the bearish case alive despite the recent rebound.
Bitcoin has entered a deep on-chain discount phase with over 95% of short-term holders underwater and realized losses approaching levels associated with severe capitulation. The AVIV ratio sits at 0.80 with z-score at -1.06, placing Bitcoin deep inside an extreme discount band relative to its cyclical mean. Short-term holders are near maximum stress, as the Short-term holder MVRV fell to 0.81 before recovering to 0.83, meaning recent buyers are roughly 17% to 19% underwater on average. Only 3.3% of short-term holders are in profit against a four-year mean of 55%, with the STH-SOPR z-score at -1.86, which is a 0.14 standard deviation short of the -2 level that Glassnode associates with severe capitulation events. The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 35.12, technically entering oversold territory, which historically has preceded relief rallies, while the daily RSI has fallen to 25.75 according to CoinCodex data.
