US inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year in April, reaching the highest level in three years and exceeding the 3.7% consensus forecast. According to reports from Bernstein, this macro shock has reignited fears that the Iran war energy crisis is spreading beyond energy prices to affect food, transportation, and core consumer goods. Energy CPI rose 3.8%, while food prices climbed 0.5%, with average US gasoline prices reaching near $4.50 per gallon, up from $3.14 a year ago. The inflation surge has driven cumulative inflation since 2020 to +29%, meaning goods that cost $100 in 2020 now cost $129 today. Rep. Ted Lieu has criticized the administration for prioritizing projects including a proposed White House ballroom, a large arch in Washington, D.C., and adding Trump's image to U.S. passports instead of addressing rising consumer costs ahead of the November elections.
Despite the macro headwinds, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani reiterated their $67 price target on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR), signaling potential 72% upside for the tokenization platform. As reported by Bernstein, the firm argues that Figure's blockchain-based loan origination platform is insulated from macro repricing, with Q1 tokenization volumes rising 113% year-over-year to $2.9 billion. The analysts believe this tokenization thesis remains intact even as broader markets face pressure from the inflation surge.
The inflation data has prompted markets to reprice for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, with the Bank of Japan signaling rate hikes could come as soon as June. According to reports from Bernstein, hot inflation is the latest argument for the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts further into 2026, with dollar strength and elevated bond yields historically pressuring risk assets. The S&P 500 remains up 8.3% year-to-date despite the macro challenges, though the extent of Fed tightening will depend on whether inflation pressures ease with an Iran ceasefire or extend into core CPI measures. The latest data comes as Americans prepare to vote on November 3, with affordability likely to be a key issue determining whether President Trump's Republican Party maintains control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.
