Moderna shares fell 8.57% in premarket trading following Citigroup's downgrade to Sell rating, with the stock trading at $187.76 - about 10.1% below Tuesday's intraday high of $208.90. The decline came after Moderna closed at $203.46 on Tuesday, having reached a new 52-week high. According to CoinMarketCap, Moderna Tokenized bStock (MRNAB) was trading at $187.79, down 3.91% over the previous 24 hours. The downgrade represents a notable shift in Wall Street sentiment, as Moderna had previously attracted only two Sell ratings among roughly two dozen analysts covering the stock.
Citigroup downgraded Moderna from Neutral to Sell while raising its price target from $60 to $80, as reported by NDTV Profit. The new target remains around 60% below Tuesday's closing price, reflecting concerns that the stock's recent rally has moved significantly ahead of the company's underlying financial outlook. According to the analysis, supporting a share price of about $200 would require approximately $26 billion in annual cancer sales, with about $13 billion accruing to Moderna. Citi's net-present-value analysis supports a valuation of only about $100 per share even if it assigns a 100% probability of success to intismeran's leading cancer programs. Analyst Geoff Meacham noted that the stock's valuation assumes substantially more oncology success than Citi currently forecasts.
The stock surge of more than 220% since mid-August was driven by positive trial results for intismeran, Moderna's personalised mRNA cancer vaccine candidate developed with Merck for high-risk melanoma, as reported by NDTV Profit. The clinical progress sparked renewed optimism around Moderna's oncology pipeline and fuelled a sharp re-rating of the stock. However, Citi has raised questions about whether the company can generate enough revenue from its oncology portfolio to support the current valuation, with the company's recent rally creating a sharp contrast between optimism around its pipeline and uncertainty over near-term financial performance. Analysts emphasize that investors still need to see a strong treatment effect, clear clinical benefit and consistency across patient groups when detailed Phase 3 melanoma results are released.
Adding to the pressure, a Delaware federal court recently rejected Moderna's motion to dismiss key claims in an ongoing patent lawsuit involving technology underpinning its mRNA platform, according to NDTV Profit. The ruling does not determine the final outcome of the dispute but keeps potential legal costs and liabilities in focus. The company continues to contend with weaker demand for some of its earlier-generation vaccines, ongoing cash consumption and losses. Wednesday's decline also reflects the possibility of profit-taking following Moderna's rapid advance, with shares having more than tripled since mid-August and approaching the $210 level.
