Jubilant FoodWorks shares fell nearly 7% to an intraday low of ₹438.60 on May 21 following multiple brokerage downgrades and cautious commentary on the company's Q4 FY26 performance. The stock opened lower at ₹449.30 and remained under pressure throughout the morning session, with volumes remaining elevated at over 14.8 lakh shares changing hands. The sharp decline follows target price cuts and cautious commentary from global brokerages including HSBC and Jefferies, which flagged weak same-store sales growth trends, moderation in demand momentum and near-term margin pressures.
Despite the market reaction, Jubilant FoodWorks reported consolidated revenue from operations of ₹2,499.47 crore in Q4 FY26, up 19.3% year-on-year from ₹2,095.02 crore. Net profit rose sharply to ₹824.23 crore compared with ₹493.30 crore reported in the year-ago quarter. EBITDA stood at ₹484.9 crore against ₹391.9 crore in Q4 FY25, while EBITDA margin improved to 19.4% from 18.7%, expanding by 70 basis points year-on-year. However, like-for-like growth of just 0.2% during Q4 marked a sharp moderation in demand trends, as highlighted by HSBC, with the quarter not benefiting from any major one-off gains apart from a marginal LPG-related impact of around 0.3-0.4%.
HSBC downgraded Jubilant FoodWorks to 'Hold' and maintained its target price at ₹530, citing the weak demand trends and margin pressures. Jefferies retained its 'Buy' rating but sharply reduced its target price to ₹600 from ₹850 earlier, noting that flat same-store sales growth and cautious short-term margin commentary indicate that a meaningful turnaround may still take time. Motilal Oswal had previously trimmed its target price to ₹500 while maintaining a 'Neutral' rating, citing weak Q4 performance and continued near-term pressure on margins. The brokerage estimates standalone revenue CAGR of 13% over FY26-28 and pre-Ind-AS Ebitda margin of 12.5%-13.0% over FY26-28E.
According to the latest reports, Jubilant FoodWorks' focus on customer acquisition and order frequency has been driving strong delivery growth. For dine-in operations, the company continues to implement various strategies including value offerings and product innovations to drive channel growth. The brokerage estimates standalone revenue CAGR of 13% over FY26-28 and pre-Ind-AS Ebitda margin of 12.5%-13.0% over FY26-28E. Management remains confident on medium-term growth with 5-7% like-for-like growth expectations, though analysts remain cautious about the balance between growth and profitability, with inflationary pressures and competitive intensity being key concerns.
On the international front, DP Euresia's interest costs are fully funded by the Turkey business with no cash outflow from India. As reported by Motilal Oswal, the brokerage values the India business at 25x EV/Ebitda (pre-IND AS) and the international business at 10x EV/Ebitda on Mar'28E. The company's international operations continue to provide stability while domestic challenges are being addressed through strategic initiatives. Despite strong headline numbers, analysts remain cautious about the company's ability to sustain margins amid inflationary pressures and competitive intensity in the broader consumption theme.
