JSW Cement is receiving mixed analyst recommendations following its Q1 FY27 results, with Motilal Oswal assigning a 'Neutral' rating with a target price of ₹146 in its research report dated August 14, 2026, while Prabhudas Lilladher maintains an 'Accumulate' rating with a target price of ₹139. Motilal Oswal values the stock at 14x FY28E EV/EBITDA, noting that at current market price, the stock is trading fairly at 16x/13x FY27E/FY28E EV/EBITDA. This contrasts with earlier positive ratings from Jefferies and Citi, with Jefferies maintaining a 'buy' rating while Citi has lowered its price target to ₹160 from ₹165.
JSW Cement's Q1 FY27 results showed mixed performance with revenue growing 22% year-on-year to ₹19.0 billion, but EBITDA declining 7% YoY to ₹3.0 billion, representing a 6% miss against estimates due to higher-than-estimated operating expenses per tonne. The operating profit margin (OPM) contracted 4.9 percentage points year-on-year to approximately 16% (estimated at 18%), while EBITDA per tonne declined 20% YoY to ₹784 (estimated at ₹835). However, adjusted PAT increased 11% YoY to ₹1.2 billion, beating estimates by approximately 17% due to higher-than-estimated share of profits in joint ventures. According to Motilal Oswal's analysis, the EBITDA decline was primarily attributed to steep losses at the new Nagaur plant and weaker Ground Granulated Blast-furnace Slag (GGBS) mix performance.
Despite margin pressures, JSW Cement demonstrated strong volume performance with overall volumes growing 15% year-on-year to 3.81 million tonnes, led by 26% cement growth to 2.34 million tonnes due to ramp-up of Nagaur plant. According to Prabhudas Lilladher, cement NSR improved 6% quarter-on-quarter to ₹4,951 per tonne, while better geographic mix aided GGBS NSR supporting blended NSR to rise 5% QoQ to ₹4,977 per tonne. Management maintains confidence in achieving EBITDA breakeven by September 2026 as the Nagaur plant utilisation ramps up rapidly, with Prabhudas Lilladher expecting the company to deliver EBITDA/volume CAGR of 24%/17% over FY26-28E. However, Motilal Oswal notes that the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is estimated to increase to 3.6x by FY28 vs. 2.9x in FY26.
