India's smartphone market is experiencing one of its sharpest-ever downturns during the current festive season, with unit sales falling 16% year-on-year during e-commerce Navratri sales, according to market tracker Counterpoint Research. Brick-and-mortar retailers are reporting a similar slump, with the All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA) estimating a 20% drop in sales since the onset of Navratri. The decline comes despite e-commerce platforms attracting record consumer traffic, as online Navratri festive sales, the largest in terms of discount and business, began last week and will continue till this weekend. This period contributes 60-65% of the total festive business in e-commerce, making the current performance particularly concerning for manufacturers.
The primary driver behind this sharp decline is the dramatic compression of festive discounts and implementation of significant price increases. Average online festive discounts on smartphones have narrowed to 10-25% from 25-40% during last year's sales, according to Counterpoint Research. Samsung and Realme increased prices of select products by 5-13% between October 11-12, while smartphone prices have surged 35-40% on average, triggered by a two-to-three-fold surge in memory chip prices, rupee depreciation and higher freight costs. Apple's iPhone 17 is currently selling for ₹86,999 on Flipkart, above its September 2025 launch price of ₹82,900, while Samsung's Galaxy S25 is available at only 20-25% discounts, falling well short of previous festive season levels.
Despite the overall market downturn, the premium smartphone segment has demonstrated relative resilience during this challenging period. Premium smartphones priced above ₹45,000 have remained relatively resilient, with Counterpoint noting that higher upfront costs following price hikes are limiting conversions despite continued demand for premium models. Smartphone unit sales in the first eight months of 2026 fell 10% year-on-year, while sales by value rose 4%, reflecting higher average selling prices. Average selling prices across major brands such as Apple, Samsung, Vivo, Oppo and Xiaomi are now around ₹35,000-37,000, allowing retailers to report marginal value growth despite falling volumes. The association represents more than 150,000 retail stores across India.
Industry experts maintain their projections of a challenging October-December quarter for smartphone sales in India, with significant market contraction expected. AIMRA estimates overall festive retail sales could still decline by over 15% from last year, with demand expected to improve as the festive season progresses but smartphone volumes still likely to decline by double digits. Faisal Kawoosa, founder and chief analyst at TechArc, noted that throughout 2025, companies repeatedly urged customers to make purchases earlier to tackle a weak market, and now with no special prices and deals, the market is facing an unprecedented decline. Inflationary pressures led to an alarming 40-50% decline in retail footfalls in September, according to AIMRA founder chairman Kailash Lakhyani, who noted that manufacturers had acknowledged that online sales this festive season had turned out to be a 'flop show'. The latest data shows smartphone sales during India's holiday season are expected to drop by 12% from the previous year, even as the total market value is expected to grow by about 5%.
