According to latest reports, Citi has upgraded Harley-Davidson stock to buy from neutral with a $33 price target, implying a 34.4% upside potential. The investment bank's analyst James Hardiman raised third and fourth quarter 2026, 2027, and 2028 estimates, viewing current levels as an attractive entry point ahead of Q3 2026 earnings and potential multiyear growth. Despite the upgrade, Harley-Davidson shares are down 41% since end-2022, though they gained 20% in 2026 and rose 3% in premarket trading following the upgrade announcement.
As reported by Citi, the motorcycle manufacturer is gaining momentum after a multiyear slump, with recent retail trends showing signs of recovery. Hardiman cites positive domestic retail growth in the first half of 2026 and continued strength through July and August. His latest checks suggest September retail could rise by double digits, which would put Harley-Davidson on pace to beat current expectations and finish the year with its strongest retail momentum in years. This recovery in retail demand comes after several years of share price declines and weaker sales, creating what analysts describe as a multiyear slump in the company's performance.
According to Citi's latest analysis, the company is positioned for improved performance in the coming period, with the investment bank projecting double-digit September gains. The analyst raised his estimates for the third and fourth quarter, as well as for full-year 2027 and 2028, suggesting a broader growth story into 2027. However, LSEG consensus expects Q3 earnings to fall over 80% year-on-year, highlighting the significant recovery challenge ahead. The current setup is viewed as an attractive entry point ahead of third-quarter earnings and guidance, with stronger 2026 demand potentially developing into a multiyear retail growth story.
