UBS Investment Bank has set a $5,600 price target for gold in 2026, according to Joni Teves, Precious Metals Strategist at UBS Investment Bank. As reported by The Economic Times, Teves acknowledges that the gold bull run is in its latter stages but emphasizes it is not over. The bank expects prices to move higher before the year is out, though investors are advised to exercise patience for the next upward move. However, Teves cautions that the easy money may already have been made, suggesting that while the structural case remains intact, current market conditions present genuine difficulties for short-term trading.
The primary driver behind UBS's bullish gold thesis is not traditional factors like central bank buying or ETF flows. According to Teves' analysis reported by The Economic Times, the real engine is diversification: a structural shift in how investors, official, institutional, and retail alike, now think about gold as a portfolio asset. She notes that this structural shift began in 2022 when the sanctioning of the Russian central bank changed how the world thought about reserve assets, with gold becoming a core holding rather than a satellite one. As Teves explains, "Since then, it has been one macro shock after another and gold has become a core holding, not a satellite one."
Current market conditions present mixed signals for gold investors. As reported by The Economic Times, central bank buying pace has tapered and seen some net selling from select banks in the first quarter. ETF flows have been choppy and muted, while positioning remains light with low conviction. Teves indicates that near-term risks are to the downside, but medium to long-term risks are actually skewed more to the upside, particularly if growth disappoints and the Fed responds accordingly. She warns that "the short-term is genuinely difficult to trade" but emphasizes that the underlying thesis of diversification into gold in an era of persistent geopolitical and macro risk has not broken.
For investors seeking to time re-entry into precious metals, UBS provides a specific recommendation regarding silver's potential outperformance. According to The Economic Times, Teves expects silver to outperform gold on the way up, suggesting that investors should consider silver as a complementary play to gold's core portfolio allocation strategy. This recommendation reflects UBS's measured approach to precious metals positioning, acknowledging that while the structural case for gold remains intact, investors should be prepared for varying performance across different precious metals during different market phases.
