A prominent crypto trader known as Loracle has made a significant bet on gold, closing $23 million worth of crypto positions to purchase gold. According to on-chain monitor Mlm on-chain, Loracle sold 503,000 HYPE tokens worth $26.5 million and another 800,000 HYPE for $52.7 million, while simultaneously closing approximately $95 million in long positions on Ethereum, Zcash, and Solana. The trader then established a gold long position, followed by an Ethereum short above $28 million. As reported by Mlm on-chain, this represents a substantial shift from cryptocurrency to precious metals, with the total bet representing a significant portion of Hyperliquid's $3.59 billion in open bets on Monday. All of Hyperliquid's builder-run markets held about $3.59 billion in open bets on Monday, per analytics site Loris Tools, making Loracle's bet large but not dominant.
Deutsche Bank analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu have positioned gold's fair value at $4,700 per ounce by year-end, well above current market levels. According to their Monday note to clients, gold has entered an explosive price phase for two years and that behavior isn't done yet. The bank conducted three tests to assess gold's trajectory, with the third test concluding that gold has closed the gap to fair value. Deutsche Bank maintained its $4,600 fourth-quarter target while noting that gold bottomed at $3,959.33 on June 24 and peaked at $5,595.47 on January 29. The bank's bullish case is supported by record central bank buying of 289 tonnes in Q2, five times the 57 tonnes purchased in Q1. Poland took 51 tonnes and China 33 tonnes during this period.
Deutsche Bank's analysis includes the Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (BSADF) test, which measures prices climbing faster than normal market conditions allow. According to the bank's report, this reading has fallen from 3.3 to 1.3, though it remains above the level that flags a bubble. The test comes from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which found gold and the S&P 500 in bubble territory simultaneously in December 2025 - a phenomenon not seen in 50 years. The BIS study noted that while the test reliably detects past bubbles, it provides no information on when bubbles may burst.
The World Gold Council presents a more conservative outlook, expecting gold to trade within 5% of $4,100 for the rest of the year, with the range capped near $4,305. As reported by the industry research body, gold needs a trigger to reach $4,500, including geopolitical shocks, shifts in rate expectations, or steady long-term buying. Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates before October under Chairman Kevin Warsh, which would make gold less appealing to hold. The council also estimates that every extra 20-30 tonnes above the usual 600 tonnes annually lifts gold by approximately 1%.
Loracle's record of large positions and quick reversals make his current gold bet particularly noteworthy. On-chain trackers say he built $42.2 million in profits over roughly 10 months before losing $46.46 million on a single HYPE short trade that wiped out his gains in just 18 days. HYPE went on to hit a record $76.70 in June. The trader's history of large positions and quick reversals make his current gold bet particularly significant in the current market environment. Gold futures traded near $4,093 on Monday, down 0.3%, aligning with a flat August gold price outlook. The total bet represents a significant but not dominant position in Hyperliquid's builder-run markets, which exist because of HIP-3, an upgrade that lets outside teams launch their own futures markets on Hyperliquid.
