Tin prices have reached a new record high of $55,100 per tonne, surpassing previous levels as the metal continues its strong upward trajectory. This latest milestone follows the metal's earlier correction from its record high of $59,040 per tonne reached in June to $55,030 per tonne, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Despite this correction, the metal has gained over 35% year-to-date and is expected to remain elevated throughout 2026. Research agency BMI has revised its annual average tin price forecast upward to $51,500 per tonne from $49,000 per tonne, citing sustained demand from AI capex investments. The latest surge comes as US copper contracts rose another 1.25% to $6.7878 per pound, following the metal's move to record levels, with benchmark three-month copper reaching an all-time high of $14,533 a tonne before easing slightly to around $14,510.
AI capital expenditure for 2026 is estimated at $785 billion, creating strong demand for tin from semiconductor and AI-related sectors, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. According to BMI, this surge in AI capex has resulted in sharp increases in demand for tin from the semiconductor industry, with strong demand for data centres and higher costs related to investments into GPUs, CPUs and memory chips. However, demand remains mixed with resilient manufacturing activity contrasting with weakness in traditional end-use sectors and China's PV sector slowdown. As per The International Tin Association, demand for tin is mixed, with resilient manufacturing activity and semiconductor and AI-related demand contrasting with weakness in traditional end-use sectors.
Supply constraints continue to support elevated tin prices, with BMI expecting supplies to remain constrained throughout 2026, though some stabilization may occur in the fourth quarter. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, Indonesian tin exports have started normalizing since Q2 2026 after declining in 2024 and 2025, but cumulative shipments remain 15% below last year, making growth in global refined production unlikely. Indonesia's refined tin exports rose to 4,564.53 tonnes in July 2026, up 20.4% year-on-year. However, the recovery has been slower than expected as of September 2026, with more smelters receiving license approvals following disruptions in Q2. The latest advance in copper prices is supported by expectations that Washington could impose additional tariffs on refined copper imports, encouraging traders to move supplies into the US and contributing to shortages elsewhere.
The International Tin Association announced in July that shipments from Myanmar's Wa state will resume in coming months, as several operators at Man Maw have reportedly secured three-year mining permits, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. However, BMI has adopted a 'wait and see' approach as no substantial updates on resumption have materialized. Meanwhile, Malaysia Smelting Corporation suspended mining operations starting August 12, 2026, following extreme rainfall damage. Myanmar remains the world's third-largest tin producer with estimated reserves of 700,000 tonnes or 15% of total global reserves.
The tin rally is part of a broader base metals surge, with copper prices hitting a record high of $14,533 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, surpassing its previous all-time peak of $14,527.50 reached in January. As per Reuters, the premium for cash copper over the three-month forward contract climbed above $430 a ton in the middle of August, its highest level since 2021. Copper prices on the SHFE are also in backwardation, with inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses standing at 63,000 tons, down 85% since March and at their lowest level since January 2024. Zinc gained 1.1% to $3,988 per tonne, supported by tight supplies after touching its highest level since May 2022 at $3,998, while aluminium rose 0.7% to $3,315 per tonne. The strength in oil and industrial metals is supporting London's resource stocks, with BP gaining 1.46% and Shell higher as escalating supply risks pushed Brent closer to $100, while mining stocks including Glencore and Antofagasta advanced on the latest copper surge.
