According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Centre, there is a growing possibility that the developing El Niño could become strong in 2026. NOAA said El Niño conditions are developing rapidly in the Pacific Ocean, with nearly a two-thirds chance that the phenomenon could strengthen into a 'strong' or 'very strong' event during the latter half of the year. Current data shows sea surface temperatures in key monitoring regions are around 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, an early indicator that El Niño conditions are beginning to form. Several climate models suggest the event may rival or even exceed major El Niño episodes recorded in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16. The 2023-24 El Niño was one of the strongest on record, only the sixth such event since measurements began in 1950, earning it the "super" designation. Now, scientists warn that a rare Super El Niño may be forming again in the Pacific in 2026, potentially one of the strongest climate events in over a century.
India's vulnerability to El Niño stems largely from its dependence on the southwest monsoon, which provides nearly 70 per cent of the country's annual rainfall between June and September. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the developing El Niño could weaken the 2026 monsoon season and increase the risk of drought-like conditions in several regions. Between 1951 and 2022, around 60 per cent of El Niño years recorded below-average rainfall in the country, with several major droughts in India coinciding with El Niño events. States including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat and Rajasthan have historically remained among the most drought-prone during El Niño years. The monsoon accounts for about 70% of India's annual rainfall and is the backbone of agriculture, which contributes roughly 18% to the economy and supports nearly half of India's 1.5 billion people.
A weak monsoon triggered by El Niño poses significant risks to India's agriculture sector, with rice, pulses, sugarcane and oilseeds among the crops most vulnerable to rainfall deficits during El Niño years. Lower rainfall and prolonged dry spells can reduce agricultural production, damage soil moisture and increase dependence on irrigation, raising costs for farmers. The impact often extends beyond farms into household budgets and the wider economy, with lower crop output pushing up food prices, particularly for staples such as rice, pulses, vegetables and edible oils. During the 2015-16 Super El Niño, India's monsoon rainfall fell to 86 per cent of the long-period average, triggering drought-like conditions across several states. A 2025 study uncovered a cruel irony: while El Niño reduces overall summer rainfall, it paradoxically increases the frequency and intensity of heavy daily downpours. The little rain that farmers do receive tends to destroy rather than nurture crops, creating a cycle that leaves no room to recover.
The developing Super El Niño poses additional challenges to India's energy infrastructure and power grid. El Niño raises temperatures, placing additional strain on India's already stressed power grid, while a weaker monsoon reduces water levels in rivers and reservoirs that hydroelectric plants depend on. During the peak heatwave months of April to June 2024, electricity demand ran 10.8% higher than the same period the previous year, with air conditioners alone accounting for nearly a third of the year-on-year increase in May. In the first half of 2024, hydro generation fell 8% year-on-year due to the lingering effects of the 2023–24 El Niño, while coal-fired generation rose 10% and gas-fired output jumped 50% to fill the gap. The 2023-24 El Niño contributed directly to what became the hottest year on record for India, with average temperatures 0.65°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, including Delhi's Mungeshpur area recording an unprecedented 52.9°C.
The upcoming El Niño is expected to have far-reaching global consequences, with scientists warning of unprecedented impacts. Some computer models show the upcoming El Niño will exceed the intensity of all previous events to become the most intense since at least 1950, according to CNN. The effects will likely include flooding in some areas while drought, heat waves and wildfires plague other regions worldwide. In the 1982-83 El Niño, there were global income losses of $4.1 trillion and $5.7 trillion of global income losses was recorded to the 1997-98 event. Climate scientists have identified "four surprises" that may result from upcoming El Niños, representing fundamental shifts in weather patterns. However, as El Niño forecasts have grown more accurate over time, humanitarian groups, governments, companies and farmers have become more adept at preparing for its effects, though the most vulnerable and underserved communities may not have access to all the information they need.
