Silver prices fell 0.84% to ₹2.39 lakh per kg in futures trade on Monday, as market participants reduced their positions. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, silver contracts for December delivery declined by ₹2,024 to ₹2,39,579 per kg in a business turnover of 2,096 lots. Globally, the white metal was trading 0.20% down at $66.12 per ounce in New York, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Analysts attributed the decline primarily to a sell-off by participants who reduced their bets on the precious metal.
Commodity experts are projecting silver could reach ₹3.25 lakh per kg if favorable global conditions align, with current trading around ₹2.40 lakh per kg. N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodity & CRM at Ventura, expects silver to stabilise in a broad $63-$75 per ounce range (₹2.25 lakh-₹2.89 lakh per kg on MCX), with high-amplitude swings as interest rates and Dollar movements continue to influence prices. He noted that if macroeconomic conditions ease, downside support could hold around $64.50 per ounce (approximately ₹2.35 lakh per kg on MCX), while medium-term targets of $75-$80 per ounce (₹3.25 lakh per kg on MCX) could be achieved with softer inflation, Fed rate cuts, and a weaker US Dollar. Renisha Chainani from Augmont expects silver to trade in a $62.5-$67.5 range (₹2.30 lakh-₹2.42 lakh) with a bullish bias, with a break above resistance potentially taking silver towards $70-$71 (approximately ₹2.50 lakh per kg).
The US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at its September 16 FOMC meeting in a unanimous 12-0 vote. According to Mirae Asset, the hawkish decision established Fed credibility and independence despite immense political pressure to cut rates. The Committee identified inflation as the predominant concern and projected another rate increase before year-end, removing an expected rate cut from next year's projections. Fed Chair Warsh described the increase as removing a 'dose of accommodation' from policy. The Fed is not expected to hike in October as it is likely to adapt a 'wait and watch' approach to assess incoming data and impacts of its September rate hike.
The sharp rally in silver prices continues to be aided by decline in yields and easing oil prices, as noted by Mirae Asset. The US Dollar Index surged 0.6% to 100.35 on the hawkish Fed hike but eased slightly to 100.13 on Thursday. Two-year US yields swung wildly with day's low and high noted as 4.59% and 4.74% respectively, closing with a gain of 1.5% at 4.73% at 4.73% - the highest since July 2024. Ten-year US yields closed 2 bps up at 5.02%, a fresh high since 2007, but eased nearly 1.5% on September 17 as oil prices fell. Oil slumped on Thursday due to Saudi's East-West pipeline being partially restored and Saudi Arabia restoring some supplies via ship-to-ship transfer in the Gulf of Oman.
As of September 16, total known global silver ETF holdings stood at 801 Moz, down 7.07% year-to-date, according to Mirae Asset. Registered COMEX Silver inventory stands at 97 Moz, down over 50% from the record peak of 201 Moz seen in September 2025. Shanghai Futures Exchange daily total silver inventory stands at 1,397 tons, up 454% from the cycle low of 252 tons seen in March, though this does not reflect supply scarcity in China.
China imported 288 tons of silver in July 2026, the highest monthly import since April, as reported by Mirae Asset. China's silver imports in the January-July period stand at 2,709 tons - around 50% higher than the quantity imported in the same period last year. This data reflects the continued strong demand for silver from China, one of the world's largest consumers of the precious metal.
