Silver prices in India witnessed significant recovery on June 12, 2026, with silver futures for the July contract surging 1.31% to ₹2,42,785 per kilogram on MCX in a business turnover of 11,251 lots. The domestic MCX spot price closed Thursday's session at ₹2,43,370 per kilogram, while international silver rallied sharply with Comex silver futures for the July contract rising nearly 5% to $67.07 per ounce in New York. However, recent developments show silver tumbling 15% this month as investors fully price in a Fed rate hike this year due to high inflation and encouraging US data. At the time of writing, the white metal was hovering around $64, up 1% for the day, though it had earlier tumbled another 3% to $61.51 in the Asian session before recovering on CENTCOM's comments that it had completed its objective with strikes against Iran.
Silver prices stabilised after US President Donald Trump claimed a breakthrough in negotiations with Iran, easing geopolitical tensions that had previously weighed on precious metals markets. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, Trump's announcement marked a reversal from earlier threats to target Iranian oil infrastructure, which had heightened fears of a broader regional conflict. However, Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said that large parts of the text under negotiation had been finalised, but Tehran would not compromise on its red lines, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. "So far, Iran has not reached a final decision on the agreement," Baghaei stated. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office clarified that it was not a party to the emerging understanding between Washington and Tehran. Despite these conflicting developments, market sentiment improved after Trump said he cancelled planned military strikes on Iran, arguing that negotiations had reached an advanced stage.
Gold prices in India mirrored international bullion markets with significant gains on June 12, 2026, as reported by GoodReturns.in. 24 carat gold increased by ₹294 per gm to ₹14,858, while 22 carat gold gained ₹270 to ₹13,620 per gm, and 18 carat gold rose ₹221 to ₹11,144 per gm. According to IBJArates.com, gold August futures traded higher by 0.67% or ₹996 at ₹1,49,928 per 10 gm, while US gold futures (August delivery) gained 2.5% to above $4,200 per ounce. The gains in precious metals are largely attributed to hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, with the optimism gaining traction after Trump called off planned military strikes on Iran. Since the US-Iran war broke out in February end, gold prices have fallen over 20%, making the current recovery particularly significant for investors.
A weaker US dollar provided additional support to silver prices, with the dollar retreating from a two-month high of 100.3 to 99.6, as reported by The Financial Express. The dollar's decline has been a key factor in the precious metals rally, as it makes silver more attractive for international investors. At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index was hovering around 100.24, up 0.25% for the day and at its highest since April 3. On the economic front, US headline PPI rose 6.5% YoY in May, above the 6.4% forecast, while core PPI eased to 4.9% YoY against expectations of 5.4%. Despite mixed economic data, markets continue to price a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike in December 2026, with the stronger-than-expected US employment data reinforcing these expectations.
Market pricing currently implies around a 60% probability of a Fed rate increase as early as October, while a quarter-percentage-point hike is almost fully priced in for December. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now assigning more than a 70% chance of a rate hike by year-end, as reported by CNBC TV18. This represents an increase from the previous 70% chance of a December rate hike, as reported by The Financial Express. The stronger-than-expected US employment data has reinforced these expectations, with the latest jobs report showing 172,000 payrolls against expectations of 85,000, as reported by The Times of India. The yield on the two-year US Treasury note stood at 4.170%, after touching 4.201% overnight, its highest level since early 2025. Two-year US yields were steady at 4.14%, while ten-year yields at 4.53% were up 3 basis points for the day, with ten-year yields above the crucial 4.5% level for the fifth straight day.
