Gold prices held steady near a one-week high on Thursday as investors remained on the sidelines awaiting further details on a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.1% to $4,696.60, while MCX Gold futures for June 2026 delivery gained ₹611 to ₹1,49,950 per 10 grams, recovering from the previous session's decline of 1.3%, as reported by The Economic Times. Silver futures for July 2026 delivery declined ₹632 to ₹2,43,263 per kg on MCX, following a 3% drop in the previous session. The recovery comes as investors track U.S.-Iran tensions and inflation risks, with oil prices surging and 30-year Treasury yields rising to the highest since July, raising inflation fears that increase the likelihood of higher interest rates.
Iran said on Wednesday it was reviewing a U.S. peace proposal that sources said would formally end the war while leaving unresolved the key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear programme and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Economic Times. The development has shook a ceasefire that has largely held since going into effect on April 8, with the UAE reporting it intercepted cruise missiles fired by the Islamic Republic and blaming an Iranian drone strike for a large fire at its Fujairah port. While Tehran submitted a revised peace proposal via Pakistan, uncertainty persists after the US flagged dissatisfaction with the terms, keeping risk sentiment fragile. The ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to influence precious metals markets, with traders closely monitoring updates around the U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Fed officials expressed concerns about inflation risks stemming from the ongoing conflict, with the ongoing U.S.-backed war with Iran raising the risk of a sustained inflation shock, according to The Economic Times. U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in April, the ADP's national employment report showed on Wednesday, with investors now awaiting the monthly U.S. employment report due Friday. The data will serve as a test of whether the U.S. economy remains resilient enough to keep the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on hold, or whether a softening labour market could revive the case for rate cuts. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.2% to 942.50 metric tons on Tuesday.
Technical analysis suggests gold has support in the $4,500-4,470 range and resistance at $4,574-4,610 per troy ounce, while silver has support at $72.00-70.00 and resistance at $75.50-77.40 per troy ounce, as reported by The Economic Times. On MCX, gold has support at ₹1,48,400-1,47,700 and resistance at ₹1,50,100-1,50,850, while silver is seen finding support at ₹2,41,000-2,38,800, with resistance at ₹2,46,600-2,50,000. Bollinger Bands are gradually narrowing, pointing toward a potential range-bound phase before a breakout, with immediate resistance at 152,200–155,000 and support at 149,200, followed by a key base around 145,000 and major support near 139,000.
Markets are expected to remain volatile amid fluctuations in the dollar index, crude oil prices and uncertainty around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, as reported by The Economic Times. While gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce its appeal by making yield-bearing assets more attractive. The primary headwind remains the hawkish pivot across major central banks, with the US Federal Reserve holding interest rates unchanged but signalling rising inflation risks. Outgoing Governor Jerome Powell cautioned markets about persistent inflationary pressures while expressing measured optimism on economic growth. The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data later this week will likely determine whether gold's recent consolidation extends or resolves with renewed upside momentum. Analysts from State Street Investment Management note that gold can perform if the Fed is on hold, so long as consensus and Fed forward guidance point towards future easing, and suggest it's likely to be supported around the $4,000 an ounce level even if bullion falls further on expectations for a hawkish Fed.
