India's rice stocks in government warehouses have reached a record high of 68.43 million metric tons as of June 1, representing a 15% increase from the previous year. According to official data reported by Business Standard, this figure far exceeds the government's target of 13.5 million tons for July 1, demonstrating exceptional food security planning. A New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading firm noted that "rice stocks are more than adequate. That should give the government the confidence to continue exports despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall, which could affect production." The record rice stocks position the world's biggest rice exporter to increase shipments despite concerns over rainfall forecasts due to an El Nino weather pattern.
Wheat stocks have reached a five-year peak of 53.41 million tons on June 1, significantly above the government's target of 27.6 million tons. As reported by Business Standard, this represents the highest wheat inventory level since 2021 and is driven by increased farmer procurement activities. A Mumbai-based dealer emphasized that "the government surprised the market by procuring 35 million tons of wheat. It is now in a comfortable position and can release stocks aggressively into the market to keep prices in check." The substantial wheat reserves provide the federal government with the capacity to manage price spikes later this year through increased open market sales.
India's rice and wheat production reached record highs of 154.02 million tons and 120.66 million tons respectively in the 2025/26 crop year, benefiting from ample monsoon rainfall that encouraged farmers to expand acreage. According to Business Standard, India accounts for around 40% of global rice exports and removed the last of its export curbs on the grain in March 2025. In recent years, India has held large rice stocks while facing tight wheat supplies, but this year the country has abundant inventories of both grains. A New Delhi-based dealer noted that the rice stocks are more than adequate, giving the government confidence to continue exports despite below-normal rainfall forecasts.
The government's aggressive procurement strategy has surprised market participants, with wheat procurement reaching 35 million tons according to a Mumbai-based dealer quoted by Business Standard. This positions the government to release stocks aggressively into the market to keep prices in check, particularly beneficial given the country's abundant inventories of both grains this year. The dealer emphasized that this represents a significant shift from previous years when India held large rice stocks while facing tight wheat supplies, with the government now in a comfortable position to manage both grain markets effectively.
