Crude oil prices have surged an unprecedented 85% in 2026 and 10% in October alone, with spot Brent and Middle Eastern grades holding above $100 a barrel for two straight months, as reported by Business Standard. Brent climbed back above $113 a barrel after a deadly drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, with US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gaining 0.59% to $100.06 as of latest reports. On a weekly basis, WTI was on track to end a two-week winning streak with a weekly loss, despite the previous session's 4% rise to a five-month high. Brent, which settled at its highest level since May 4 on Thursday, was set to gain for a third consecutive week, maintaining the upward momentum despite current volatility. November crude oil futures were trading at ₹9511 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Friday, up 0.28% from the previous close of ₹9484, while December futures were trading at ₹9377 against the previous close of ₹9344, up by 0.35%.
US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering fresh strikes on Iran after the US mid-term elections, according to The Hindu BusinessLine, with the US reinforcing its military presence in the region by deploying a second aircraft carrier. Reports also indicate that US troops have been evacuated from some bases in West Asia, adding to the escalating tensions. Trump has blamed Iran for rising oil prices, posting on Truth Social that "Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election", claiming that Iran is making up fake attacks and mines to justify higher prices. The President also stated that "75,000 protestors lie dead in less than seven months" and warned that "IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AND THEY WILL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON".
Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate, as reported by The Economic Times. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had underscored how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify. Conversely, a return to normal export levels could bring prices down towards $80 per barrel. Struyven said shipping risks had become a key factor influencing oil prices, adding that the bank saw significant upside potential for crude. Goldman Sachs also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to increase, with supply shocks having a greater impact on gas and refined products than on crude oil.
Asian refiners are experiencing significant margin compression due to skyrocketing shipping costs, as reported by Business Standard. A Middle Eastern crude-to-China voyage that cost about $2 a barrel in January now costs $51, with tanker freight accounting for $10 and only $41 remaining for the refiner. In March, the same voyage costs $51 with $10 freight and $41 for the refiner. The IEA uses about $36 a barrel for freight, while a consultancy estimate published on October 19 puts freight at $33 and the refiner's share at $7. Asian refinery margins on Middle Eastern crude have turned negative in September, with Asian margins on medium-sour crude also turning negative. China's crude import cost rose just 33% to about 4,500 RMB/t, or roughly $87 a barrel, though this figure is flattered by including the July ceasefire when Iranian oil flowed freely.
Indian refiners have increased Middle Eastern crude imports to 2.8 mb/d in September, the highest since February and back to pre-war levels, with Gulf oil making up about 54% of total imports, up from 32% in August, as reported by Business Standard. Russian imports fell about 14% month-on-month to around 1.8 mb/d, cutting Russia's share to 33.5% from 46.6% as Indian refiners faced stiff competition from China. US crude is losing ground in Asia, with leasing a tanker for the Pacific run now costing a record almost $80 million. Asian orders for November-delivery US crude have dropped roughly 50% month-on-month to 24–26 million barrels, which if sustained would be a seven-year low.
