India's crude oil basket has surged to $115.98 per barrel on September 9, 2026, driven by escalating tensions in West Asia and shipping disruptions through key waterways. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), the Indian crude basket has averaged $104.09 per barrel so far in September, representing a 15.41% increase from August's $90.19 average. The surge comes amid an escalation in the US-Iran conflict and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about higher energy prices impacting inflation, economic growth and India's import bill. Brent crude futures for November delivery climbed to a high of $101.94 per barrel, with the benchmark surging more than 13% this month and rising nearly 70% year-to-date. Recent developments show that OPEC has lowered its forecast of world oil demand growth - 2026, to 380,000 barrels a day, marking the fifth consecutive downward revision, while a survey revealed that OPEC's oil production fell by 640,000 bpd during August.
India's crude oil imports experienced significant growth in July 2026, with crude imports averaging 5.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), representing an increase of 274 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) or about 6% month-on-month. According to reports from Business Standard, this growth was driven by refinery runs moving above the five-year average for this time of year. Compared to the same month last year, crude imports were 596 tb/d higher, or about 13%, demonstrating sustained demand for oil imports. The strong import performance comes as India faces rising crude prices, with the latest surge adding pressure on the country's energy import bill. Analysts believe that the durability of the rally will depend on China, as the world's biggest crude importer, with China's continued purchases potentially increasing the impact of supply disruptions and pushing prices higher.
Russia emerged as the dominant supplier, accounting for 56% of India's crude imports in July 2026, followed by the UAE with 9% and Saudi Arabia with 8%. As reported by Business Standard, Oman, Venezuela and Brazil each held 4% of the market share. This supplier composition reflects India's diversified sourcing strategy across multiple international partners, with Russia maintaining its position as the largest supplier despite geopolitical considerations. The current geopolitical tensions have not significantly altered this supplier hierarchy, though they may influence future sourcing decisions.
In contrast to crude oil growth, India's product imports experienced a significant decline in July 2026. According to Business Standard, product imports fell by 63 tb/d or over 8% month-on-month to average 693 tb/d. On a year-on-year basis, product imports were down by 542 tb/d or 44%. The decline was attributed to constrained LPG imports weighing on product inflows, while fuel oil inflows showed improvement during the month. This product decline pattern continues to contrast with the robust crude oil import performance.
The sustained rise in crude prices has created significant pressure on global markets, with Brent crude climbing to a four-month high of $109.97 per barrel after jumping 6% overnight. Asian markets fell sharply as crude prices surged and bond yields climbed, raising inflation and rate concerns ahead of the Indian market open. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.97%, near the closely watched 5% mark, while the 30-year yield reached a 19-year high. Markets were pricing roughly a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike this month, with the combination of higher crude, rising yields and weak Asian equities likely to keep Indian benchmarks under pressure at the open. For Indian equities, the global cues point to a weak and potentially volatile opening, with pressure likely to be particularly visible in rate-sensitive and oil-consuming sectors.
