According to a new report by Grant Thornton Bharat, India's critical minerals demand could increase four to ten times by 2047 as the country transitions towards clean energy and electric mobility. The professional services firm's report, titled 'Building a Critical Minerals Ecosystem in India,' warns that India's push towards advanced manufacturing could be constrained by a looming shortage of critical minerals unless the country rapidly builds domestic capabilities beyond mining. The report projects that copper demand alone is expected to increase more than fivefold by 2047, while consumption of battery minerals such as lithium, graphite, nickel and cobalt is projected to multiply as renewable energy and electric mobility gain scale. As India moves toward Net Zero 2070, demand for key critical minerals could rise four to ten times over current levels, making supply security an immediate concern rather than a distant one.
As reported by Grant Thornton Bharat, India's target of installing 500 GW of non-fossil fuel power capacity by 2030, coupled with rapid electrification of transport, will trigger an unprecedented surge in demand for critical minerals. The report states that EV battery demand alone is expected to reach 110-130 GWh by 2030, while Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) could require around 145 GWh of storage capacity. Overall demand for select critical minerals could reach between 6 million and 8 million tonnes by the early to mid-2040s. According to the report, renewable energy deployment will drive sharp increases in demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper, silicon and rare earth elements, making reliable access to these resources a strategic necessity.
As reported by Grant Thornton Bharat, India's mineral challenge stems less from resource scarcity and more from weak circularity. Battery recycling capacity currently stands at just 2 GWh, against a projected demand of 115 GWh by 2030, representing a gap of roughly 60-fold. Formal e-waste processing has improved only from about 10 per cent to 33 per cent between 2017 and 2022, with recovery rates remaining especially low for battery-linked minerals. The report notes that recycling potential stands under 5 per cent for cobalt, under 3 per cent for graphite, and under 2 per cent for lithium, while for rare earth elements it is under 1 per cent. Despite India generating around 1.75 million tonnes of e-waste annually, which is expected to reach 54 million tonnes by 2040, its lithium-ion battery recycling capacity is only about 2 GWh against expected battery demand of around 115 GWh by 2030.
As reported by Grant Thornton Bharat, India remains heavily dependent on imports for several strategically important minerals. While minerals such as copper, graphite, phosphorus, titanium and rare earth elements have identified domestic resources and offer scope for import substitution through enhanced exploration and downstream processing, others including lithium, cobalt, gallium, platinum group elements, germanium and beryllium continue to suffer from negligible domestic reserves or inadequate technological capabilities. Despite policy momentum through the ₹34,300 crore National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) and the ₹1,500 crore Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme, India's recycling ecosystem remains underdeveloped. The report notes that structural gaps remain across exploration, refining, recycling and financing, with India's recycling potential standing under 5 per cent for cobalt, under 3 per cent for graphite, and under 2 per cent for lithium.
The report proposes a comprehensive three-phase roadmap extending to 2047 that focuses on scaling recycling, refining, mineral traceability and domestic value addition. During the first phase (2026-2031), it recommends establishing Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) mandates, developing Circular Mineral Processing Zones (CMPZs), introducing battery traceability systems, restricting scrap exports, incentivising recyclers and strengthening skill development. The second phase (2031-2036) focuses on industrialising the ecosystem through expanded recycling infrastructure, large-scale traceability systems and mobilisation of green finance. The final phase (2036-2047) envisages achieving strategic self-reliance by reducing import dependence, generating an annual recycling economy of $10-15 billion and contributing significantly to India's net-zero ambitions. The report also recommends major policy reforms including shifting auction criteria towards long-term resource security, introducing exploration-led allocation of mineral blocks, and mandating domestic beneficiation and refining. To strengthen overseas supply, it recommends a sovereign critical minerals fund and deeper government-to-government partnerships.
