OPEC has lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026 to 970,000 barrels per day, marking the second straight downward revision according to the producer group's latest monthly report. The current forecast reduced the expected oil demand growth this year from 1.17 million barrels per day seen previously. However, OPEC continues to see a smaller impact on consumption since the Iran war started than other forecasters such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency. For 2027, OPEC expects oil demand to rise by 1.73 million bpd, up 190,000 bpd from the previous forecast. The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil routes, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output and resulting in a surge in fuel prices hitting consumers and businesses worldwide.
India is positioned to be the single largest contributor to global oil demand growth over the next 25 years, according to OPEC's World Oil Outlook 2026. The country is expected to add 8.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) of oil demand between 2025 and 2050, making it the largest source of incremental demand globally. This growth is driven by rising incomes, industrialisation and transport needs that outweigh the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources. The global primary energy demand is projected to increase by 23% from around 312 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in 2025 to nearly 383 mboe/d by 2050. Oil demand is forecast to rise from current levels to 113.3 mb/d by 2030 and further to 124.1 mb/d by 2050, representing an increase of about 19 mb/d over the outlook period.
Despite the current demand challenges, oil is expected to remain the largest source in the global energy mix through 2050, accounting for just under 30% of total demand. Combined, oil and natural gas are projected to make up around 54% of the energy mix by mid-century. Renewable energy, including solar, wind, hydro, biomass and other sources, is projected to record the largest increase, growing by 51.3 mboe/d by 2050. The share of renewables in the global energy mix is expected to increase to around 26% by 2050 from about 15% in 2025. OPEC noted that the global economic performance in the first half of 2026 has remained resilient, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, leaving its economic growth forecasts unchanged.
OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.13 million bpd in May, down 190,000 bpd from April, according to the report citing secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor its production. Iran posted the biggest drop in output, with the country's exports down sharply in May due to a U.S. blockade, as confirmed by tanker data. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made it impossible for OPEC+ to lift production as previously agreed, with the group having agreed to resume output increases from April but unable to implement the plan. The report said output fell further in May as a result of the geopolitical tensions. Other major contributors to global oil demand growth include Other Asia (5.3 mb/d), the Middle East (4.7 mb/d), Africa (4.3 mb/d), Latin America (2.8 mb/d), and China (1.1 mb/d) over the same period.
