India has emerged as a crucial source of diesel for Europe, supplying about 60% of the fuel transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb to the region in August, according to data from Vortexa. About 2,00,000 barrels per day of diesel (gasoil) transited the Bab-el-Mandeb in August on vessels bound for Europe, close to year-earlier levels after flows through the key shipping route nearly stalled in March and April. This positions Indian refineries as an increasingly important source of Europe's eastern diesel supply, with India being the world's fourth-largest refiner with an installed capacity of 258.1 million tonnes per annum. In 2025-26 (April 2025 to March 2026 fiscal year), India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, making it one of the largest exporters of refined products globally. As per Zee News, being the fourth largest oil refiner in the world, India's refining capacity is higher than the domestic fuel demand.
In 2025-26 (April 2025 to March 2026 fiscal year), India exported 61.5 million tonnes of petroleum products, making it one of the largest exporters of refined products globally. However, crude and condensate shipments into India fell for a second consecutive month to about 3.8 million barrels per day in August, compared to 4.8 million barrels per day a year earlier, according to Vortexa data. Russian diesel exports have remained largely absent, with Russia's seaborne diesel and gasoil exports averaging only about 1,50,000 barrels per day in the first 25 days of August, down about 6,10,000 barrels per day from a year earlier and 81% below the five-year seasonal average. The concern is whether India can maintain its high export volumes as crude availability in India tightens. As per Zee News, the sustainability of India's continued supply of refined products becomes dubious due to the low crude oil imports.
The US supplied about 520,000 barrels per day of Europe's seaborne diesel imports from outside the region in August, compared to about a quarter a year earlier. However, shipments to Europe peaked at almost 540,000 barrels per day in early August before falling to about 350,000 barrels per day later in the month, a decline of roughly 35%. This leaves Europe increasingly dependent on Indian refiners to maintain eastern supply routes just as crude availability in India is tightening. The Strait of Hormuz is offering limited relief to the clean-products market, with only 37 crossings by MR2-sized or larger tankers carrying clean products recorded during the first 27 days of August, down from 55 in July and 69 in June.
Russian diesel exports, once a major source of European supply, have remained largely absent due to multiple factors. Ukrainian drone strikes have continued to disrupt Russian refining and export infrastructure, with 32 attacks on refineries recorded across July and August. An attack on the 2,60,000-barrel-per-day Perm refinery left only about 28% of its crude distillation capacity operational. The Black Sea accounted for about 44% of Russia's diesel and gasoil exports last year, but port and refinery disruptions have reduced available volumes. No diesel cargoes have been exported from Tuapse since a May strike, with the port handling about 90,000 barrels per day, or roughly 10% of Russia's total diesel exports in 2025. Russia is increasingly turning to imports to compensate for domestic refining disruptions, with its seaborne gasoline imports surging to a record 1,25,000 barrels per day in August, relying on sanctioned fleets and ship-to-ship transfers involving suppliers such as India, Turkey and Morocco. As per Zee News, even the lifting or partial relaxation of Russia's diesel export restrictions from September 1 may not result in an immediate recovery in supplies.
