Gold prices have surged around 3% after a fresh Reuters poll showed that a majority of economists expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2026, easing concerns of an imminent rate-hike cycle. The precious metal had previously rebounded to $4,378 after clawing back a 2.6% three-day slide that began with firming Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, but the latest poll results have provided additional relief to markets. The shift comes as US economic data has remained relatively strong and inflation continues to run above the Fed's 2% target.
Current CME FedWatch trackers put the odds of a 25 basis point hike at the Fed's September 16 meeting near 58-60%, representing a shift from previous expectations. As per Reuters, the Reuters poll conducted between September 4 and 9 shows that 70%, or 65 of 93 economists, expect rates to remain unchanged next week, down sharply from 90% in August. The remaining respondents expect a 25-basis-point increase, the first such hike since July 2023. For the full year, 56%, or 52 economists, expect rates to stay unchanged, compared with 80% in recent polls. The proportion expecting at least one hike has more than doubled from last month, with markets now pricing in two rate hikes by March.
Technical analysis shows gold trading in a narrow range with key support and resistance levels clearly defined. According to FXStreet and FXEmpire technical reads, the recovery zone sits at $4,500-$4,530, while current price stands at $4,371.69. The 50-period moving average sits at $4,378.03 and the 200-period average at $4,403.06, with the current price just under the faster 50-period line. The 14-period RSI reads 54.99 against a signal line at 39.22, showing fading downside momentum without reaching overbought territory.
The recovery in gold prices reflects the complex interplay between safe haven demand and inflation concerns, with the latest Reuters poll adding to market uncertainty. As reported by Reuters, economists are now closely watching the August Consumer Price Index data, due Friday, for clues on the central bank's next move. Eli Nir, US economist at TD Securities, told Reuters that "if everything plays out as we're expecting, then they'll stay on hold next week. But if there's an upside surprise on the inflation data, they're not going to wait around. They're likely to start a hiking cycle." Economists expect annual PCE inflation at 3.5% this year and 2.4% in 2027, with inflation unlikely to return to the Fed's 2% target before 2028.
