Gold and silver prices in India remained stable on Wednesday, with investors closely watching for clarity on stalled peace talks between the United States and Iran. According to CNBC TV18, COMEX gold futures for June delivery were last seen at $4,685 per ounce, down 0.19% from the previous close of $4,697.50 an ounce, after moving in a narrow range between $4,697 and $4,716 an ounce. In the spot market, gold hovered around $4,693 per ounce, reflecting a mild gain of about 0.2%. Meanwhile, silver prices also moved lower, with COMEX silver at $74.445 per ounce, down 0.77% from $75.460 an ounce, with spot silver rising to around $75.9 per ounce, outperforming gold slightly after a sharper fall in the previous week. On the domestic front, MCX gold for June futures slipped ₹26, or 0.02%, to ₹1,51,735 per 10 grams, with prices down over 2% so far this week. MCX silver for May futures dropped ₹1,928, or 0.80%, to ₹2,39,585 per kg, extending its weekly losses to more than 6%.
Since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, gold prices have declined by more than 10%, while silver has fallen even more sharply, dropping around 18%. As reported by CNBC TV18, bullion markets are currently navigating two opposing forces - geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to support safe-haven demand, with reports of a new proposal from Tehran and ongoing diplomatic back-and-forth keeping uncertainty elevated. However, tight monetary policy expectations are limiting gains, with the US Federal Reserve widely expected to hold rates steady this week, but elevated Treasury yields and a strong dollar are reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, indicating a hawkish stance on inflation and central bank independence, have further tempered expectations of near-term rate cuts. The critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with crude oil prices surging—Brent above $108 per barrel and WTI above $96 amid continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz, feeding inflation concerns that indirectly support gold but also reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy. Oil prices—up nearly 3% in the previous session—are reinforcing inflation concerns, with elevated energy costs supporting expectations of prolonged policy caution from global central banks.
Traders are assessing the Federal Reserve's path on borrowing costs after the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady this week. According to CNBC TV18, markets are closely tracking a series of high-impact events this week, including US Federal Reserve policy decision, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of England meetings, and US macro data such as GDP, PCE inflation, and ISM manufacturing. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to advance Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair to the full Senate, with a vote now set for 10 a.m. EDT (1400 GMT). Investors don't expect Warsh to deliver the aggressive rate cuts urged by the president, but rather pursue a measured approach with gradual moves to lower rates. The energy-supply shock caused by the war has added to inflation risks, raising the likelihood that central banks will keep interest rates steady for longer or even hike them, which is a headwind for non-yielding bullion. As per Bloomberg, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, rose a further 0.1% after adding 0.3% last week, reinforcing the dollar's strength and pressuring precious metals prices.
Analysts have raised their annual gold price forecasts due to strong central bank demand and economic uncertainty, as reported by The Economic Times. Prithviraj Kothari, Managing Director at RiddiSiddhi Bullions, said the bullion market is facing "competing forces," with geopolitical risks providing support while macroeconomic conditions cap upside. According to CNBC TV18, Kothari noted that a sustained move above resistance could open the path toward $5,000 an ounce levels, while failure to hold support may lead to a correction. He added that central bank buying and ETF demand remain structurally supportive, even as the pace of accumulation has moderated, with a weaker Indian rupee, hovering around ₹94 against the dollar, keeping domestic prices elevated. For silver, analysts note that the metal is tracking both safe-haven and industrial cues, with the metal may remain volatile alongside gold. Recent market analysis suggests that the ongoing war is creating a logistical crisis rather than an oil crisis, as there is plenty of oil being produced in the Gulf but it cannot move to customers - a critical factor affecting precious metals demand. Sachin Sawrikar, Managing Partner at Artha Bharat Investment Managers IFSC LLP, noted that the recent move in precious metals reflects a rotation of inflation-hedge flows toward crude oil rather than a loss of gold's appeal, with higher energy prices leading investors to reassess inflation expectations and delay rate-cut bets.
On the MCX gold prices outlook, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, indicated that the bullion is trading near the ₹1,52,000–₹1,53,200 zone, indicating consolidation after the recent recovery, with near-term momentum moderating while the broader structure remains constructive. As reported by Mint, on the downside, ₹1,50,300–₹1,50,000 acts as immediate support, with a break below potentially extending weakness toward ₹1,48,000–₹1,45,000, and deeper support near ₹1,40,000–₹1,38,000. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹1,55,500–₹1,57,000, followed by ₹1,58,000–₹1,60,000, with a sustained breakout needed to revive bullish momentum. For silver, Ponmudi R opined that MCX Silver futures witnessed a weak-to-consolidation week, with prices currently hovering around ₹2,44,000–₹2,45,000 after a pullback. The ₹2,40,000–₹2,38,000 zone acts as a crucial support, and holding above it may keep the market stable, though a break below could drag prices toward ₹2,32,000–₹2,30,000. On the upside, resistance is placed at ₹2,48,000–₹2,50,000, with only a sustained move above this range able to revive bullish momentum toward ₹2,55,000 and higher.
