Gold and silver prices remained in a tight consolidation range on Tuesday as investors weighed the slim prospects of a U.S.-Iran peace deal ahead of a Wednesday ceasefire deadline. Spot gold was trading around $4,794–$4,825 per ounce, pinned within its recent $4,750–$4,850 band, while silver hovered near $79.30, holding above the key $78 support level. On MCX, gold traded in the ₹1,53,500–₹1,54,000 range and silver held above ₹2,51,000, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. The precious metals market continues to navigate between geopolitical uncertainties and monetary policy expectations, with both gold and silver showing range-bound behavior amid mixed global cues.
Gold prices extended their decline on Monday, giving back the bulk of gains earned during last week's brief ceasefire optimism as renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf sent oil prices sharply higher and reignited concerns over energy-driven inflation. Front-month gold settled down 1.1% on Monday to $4,806.50 a troy ounce, following a 1.3% drop in early European trading that had pushed New York futures to $4,815.30. The two-day slide has effectively erased the metal's gains from last week, when news that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open during a ceasefire period had propelled gold above $4,850 and pushed silver above $82 per troy ounce, its highest level since mid-March. As per The Hindu BusinessLine, the energy-driven inflation risk is now directly weighing on gold as crude surged, with the dollar firmed above 98.3, dampening rate-cut expectations and limiting upside for non-yielding assets.
Gold prices are experiencing their second consecutive day of decline in India, with 24 carat gold retailing at ₹1,53,830 per 10 grams, down 0.77% or ₹1,200, while 22 carat gold is priced at ₹1,41,030 per 10 grams, lower by ₹1,100, according to Upstox News Desk. The domestic market continues to reflect international price movements in bullion, with the ongoing uncertainty around the US-Iran conflict stance contributing to the sustained pressure on precious metal prices. This follows the broader trend of gold prices declining globally as investors seek potential peace talks between the US and Iran, even as fresh signs of escalation surfaced.
Crude oil dominated market moves, with Brent crude climbing to around $95 per barrel and WTI to approximately $91, both surging more than 6% on Monday after Iran reimposed restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, citing U.S. "breaches of trust." As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, IRGC gunboats fired on a transiting tanker, several vessels turned back, and the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman. The moves reversed a sharp Friday selloff, when Brent had fallen to $86 after Iran's foreign minister briefly declared the strait open. The double blockade of the chokepoint, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes, remains intact, putting a firm floor under crude prices despite shifting ceasefire signals. Kaynat Chainwala from Kotak Securities noted that this creates headwinds for gold prices as energy-driven inflation risks increase.
Technically, a decisive break above $4,900 on COMEX gold could open the path toward $4,970–$5,000, while a fall below $4,800 risks a slide to $4,650–$4,600. For silver, a close above $80–$81 could lift prices toward $85–$87, but a break below $78 exposes the $75–$76 zone, as reported by The Hindu BusinessLine. Markets are closely watching Tuesday's congressional testimony from incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on the Fed's tolerance for energy-driven inflation. Renisha Chainani from Augmont noted that the ongoing Middle East conflict has caused significant disruption to energy supplies, pushing inflation risks higher and increasing the probability of central bank interest rate hikes. The USD/INR pair is expected to trade sideways in the ₹92.95–₹93.35 range, with the rupee ending Monday 20 paise weaker at 93.12.
