Gold and silver may face selling pressure this holiday-shortened week as traders track peace talks between the US and Iran and their potential impact on oil, gold, and broader financial markets. According to Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research at JM Financial Services Ltd, focus will remain on the progress in peace talks and their broader market implications. On the macroeconomic front, traders will monitor monetary policy decisions from the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank. Recent analysis suggests that gold and silver have largely defied traditional safe-haven expectations during the 2026 Iran conflict, experiencing significant volatility and price declines rather than consistent rallies. The April 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be the last chaired by Jerome Powell, making the policy statement and post-meeting press conference particularly significant for precious metals prices.
The April 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be the last chaired by Jerome Powell, making the policy statement and post-meeting press conference particularly significant for precious metals prices. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, analysts noted that buying and selling activity among global central banks remained mixed, while uncertainty over future interest rate cuts or hikes amid higher commodity-led inflation may keep bullion prices volatile. The meeting is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the 3.50 to 3.75 percent range, extending a pause that has held since the start of the year. Recent market analysis indicates that the Fed's response to rising bond yields carries high stakes, with potential implications for monetary policy and precious metals markets. Key US macroeconomic data releases, including housing numbers, PCE inflation, consumer confidence, and factory activity readings from major economies later in the week, are also likely to influence sentiment.
Gold prices slipped on Wednesday as rising oil prices fuelled concerns of persistent inflation, with markets watching closely for remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the future path of interest rates. According to The Hindu BusinessLine, spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,579.34 per ounce as of 0919 GMT, after falling to its lowest level since April 2 in the previous session. US gold futures for June delivery fell 0.4% to $4,592.60. In the domestic market, MCX gold futures for June were marginally higher by 0.03% at ₹1,50,077 per 10 grams in early morning session on Wednesday, while MCX silver futures for May 2026 delivery gained ₹1,258 or 0.5% to ₹2,38,018 per kg. The metal has lost about 16% since the conflict began at the end of February, while crude oil prices have soared. High interest rates weigh on gold's attractiveness as it's a non-yielding asset, with analysts noting that gold remains acutely sensitive to the shifting rate environment.
Efforts to end the Iran conflict were at an impasse as US President Donald Trump was unhappy with the latest proposal from Tehran, which he said had informed the US it was in a 'state of collapse' and figuring out its leadership situation. According to Reuters, which quoted a US official, United States President Donald Trump is not happy with Iran's latest proposals, as they did not address Tehran's nuclear program. President Trump said Iran has asked the US to lift a naval blockade of Hormuz while the two sides negotiate an end to the two-month war, which has upended global energy supplies. Trump also said on Tuesday that Iran is keen for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened quickly, however, he remains unhappy with Iran's recent proposals, citing their failure to address issues related to its nuclear program. Mediators in Pakistan expect Iran will submit a revised proposal in the next few days, as reported by CNN. While a fragile ceasefire largely held over the weekend, Trump on Saturday called off a planned trip by special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff to Islamabad for round two of negotiations with Iran.
Crude oil extended gains as markets assessed a report stating that the US will extend its blockade of Iranian ports, likely prolonging supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region. As reported by The Hindu BusinessLine, MCX Crude Oil surged 3.28% to ₹9,106 per barrel and Brent climbed 2.75% to $108.2 and WTI advanced 2.09% to $96.4. The energy supply shock has added to inflation risks, raising the likelihood that central bankers will keep rates steady for longer or even hike them, a headwind for non-yielding bullion. Among base metals, spot silver fell 0.2% to $72.92 per ounce, while platinum fell 0.9% to $1,922.83 and palladium was down 0.6% at $1,451.46. Global gold demand rose 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 as a surge in purchases of gold bars and coins, along with an increase in buying by central banks, offset a 23% decline in jewellery demand, according to the World Gold Council. Analysts expect gold to find support at lower levels but remain vulnerable if the dollar stays strong and geopolitical tensions ease, while silver may see higher volatility due to its dual nature as both an industrial and precious metal.
