MCX gold October 2026 futures extended their recent decline on Friday, with the contract touching an intraday low of ₹1,50,695 per 10 grams, down ₹1,646 from the previous close of ₹1,52,341. At around 10 a.m., the contract was trading at ₹1,51,474, down ₹867 or 0.57% as of latest trading data. The decline follows a weak close in the previous session, with gold October futures closing at ₹1,52,341 on September 10, compared with ₹1,53,763 on September 9. Fresh positions by market participants led to a rise in the precious metal's prices, with the yellow metal contract for October delivery showing a business turnover of 867 lots. The precious metals had previously fallen ₹3,600 and ₹6,000 respectively over the past two sessions, reflecting sustained pressure from Federal Reserve policy expectations and ongoing US-Iran uncertainties.
On COMEX, gold futures fell more than 1% to $4,359.19 per ounce after robust US inflation data and rising oil prices increased bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. US gold futures fell 1.3% to $4,402.5, with the contract touching a high of $4,402.5 and a low of $4,359.19 an ounce. Silver declined 1.58% to $63.90 per ounce during morning trade, with the session high at $64.32 an ounce and low at $63.71 an ounce. According to CNBC TV18, the fall in bullion prices comes despite some supportive factors, with a weaker US dollar helping gold in recent sessions, while strong inflows into gold ETFs have reinforced investor demand. Global gold ETFs attracted $18 billion in August, their second-largest monthly inflow on record, taking global holdings up by 121 tonnes to a record 4,189 tonnes. Vedika Narvekar from Anand Rathi expects international gold prices to remain between $4,340 and $4,450 an ounce, while MCX gold could trade in the ₹1.51 lakh-₹1.55 lakh per 10 grams range.
The decline in gold prices was attributed to traders scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes following stronger-than-expected US jobs data. Data released on Friday showed US non-farm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, nearly three times the market expectation of around 53,000, suggesting an improvement in the labour market after recent struggles and keeping a rate increase at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting on the table. Ashish Rajodiya, Commodity Research Analyst at PL Capital, said the stronger jobs data revived expectations of a September Fed rate hike. Traders are pricing in a 70% likelihood of a rate hike at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, the latest market data shows spot gold declined 1.7% to $4,367.92 per ounce and US gold futures dropped 1.6% to $4,391.30, with traders subsequently pricing in a 70% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, up from 62% before the data. The expectations of rate hikes had previously dropped after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's remarks favoring steady interest rates if inflation pressures cool. However, the stronger jobs data has renewed expectations of rate increases, which weigh down bullion prices as gold is a non-yielding product. UBS Group AG strategist Joni Teves wrote that "We would expect a September hike to generate a knee-jerk correction, but not to derail the broader recovery," while noting that "a hold would likely deliver a stronger upside response."
Brent crude breached the $105 threshold and moved above $108 a barrel on Friday (September 10), while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crossed $103 a barrel after both benchmarks gained more than 6% in the previous session. Oil prices jumped 4% on Thursday, with Brent crude reaching $105 a barrel, following the biggest surge in attacks on shipping since the start of the US-Iran war. Geopolitical tensions have added another layer of support as Iran said on Wednesday that it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the U.S. sank five Iranian oil tankers, marking the biggest wave of attacks on shipping by both sides since the six-month-old war began. US President Donald Trump's top White House advisers have raised privately with him the prospect that the Iran conflict could drag on through the remainder of his term, according to The Wall Street Journal. The conflict intensified with Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen launching strikes on several Saudi cities, drawing another U.S. ally deeper into the war. Vedika Narvekar noted that "Recovery in oil prices is seen exerting pressure again on gold" as higher oil prices can add to inflationary pressures and complicate US monetary policy expectations. The rise in oil prices is particularly relevant for Indian markets because it can affect both inflation expectations and the rupee.
Gold prices were headed for a third straight weekly decline, down more than 2% for the week ending September 11, as reported by ET Now. As of 5:45 am, spot gold was trading nearly unchanged at USD 4,319.82 per ounce, though the yellow metal remained lower after trading around the USD 4,400 level in the previous session. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week stood at 71%, while expectations for a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting were significantly higher, at 96%. A Fed rate hike typically weighs on gold prices as higher interest rates increase the appeal of yield-bearing assets and can strengthen the US dollar, reducing demand for non-yielding assets such as bullion. The data added to expectations that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance, further weighing on gold. The next major trigger for bullion markets is US inflation and its potential impact on the Fed's policy path. A hotter inflation reading could push US bond yields higher and limit the upside in gold and silver, while a softer reading could revive expectations of easier monetary policy and support bullion. For Indian investors, the global bullion trend, crude oil prices, US yields and the rupee will therefore remain important factors to watch. Jateen Trivedi from LKP Securities noted that "Gold range can be seen between ₹1,51,500 and ₹1,55,000" while Manav Modi from Motilal Oswal expects market attention to shift to US CPI data and next week's Fed decision, with movements in Treasury yields, the dollar and Middle East developments remaining key drivers for bullion.
