Gold prices remain supported above the $4,550 region as cautious optimism surrounding potential US-Iran negotiations weakens the US Dollar and Treasury yields. According to The Financial Express, gold prices in India declined by 0.5% on May 26, 2026, with 24K gold trading at ₹158,720 per 10 grams (down ₹790 from previous close) and 22K gold at ₹145,493 per 10 grams (down ₹724.20). This represents a continued downward trend as gold prices have fallen by nearly 15% since the conflict began in late February. Gold prices in India continue to remain higher than in Dubai, with Dubai pricing 24K gold at ₹143,303 per 10 grams, reflecting a ₹15,417 or 10.76% difference between the two markets. The decline is attributed to heightened uncertainties in the Middle East and a firm dollar, which makes precious metals more expensive for overseas investors.
According to The Times of India, gold prices may gain if oil prices fall due to potential Iran-US negotiations, but the rise is likely to be capped. Spot gold traded with a daily gain of 1.35% at $4570 on May 21, buoyed by Iran deal hopes as crude oil slumped, which eased rate hike concerns to an extent. The metal was trading with a positive bias as both sides faced pressure to end the conflict, with Brent oil futures down 6.38% at $93.87 at the time of writing. However, recent developments show US military carried out fresh strikes in Iran citing it as 'self-defense', which pushed oil prices higher and added to inflationary concerns, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. Both WTI and Brent Crude Oil prices rose more than 3% intraday, currently trading at $95.18 per barrel and $96.98 per barrel respectively due to uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement.
As reported by The Times of India, Iran and the US negotiators tried to agree to a memorandum of understanding (MoU) over the weekend, which could lead to opening of the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day ceasefire that could provide more time to resolve differences. However, both sides remain divided on certain issues like control of the Strait of Hormuz, US blockade, Israel's ambitions and release of Iran's frozen funds. Iran's demand includes releasing as much as $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets held in Qatar, while the MoU does not contain anything on Iran's ballistic missiles or support for regional proxies. Iranian officials have now issued their first direct response to US statements, suggesting that while "there is no toll" on the Strait of Hormuz, the regime is working to regulate the waterway and that ships wishing to cross will likely be required to make some form of payment. US President Donald Trump stated that the framework for a potential peace agreement had 'largely been negotiated,' helping improve investor confidence at the start of the week. However, Trump added to the uncertainty by warning that the United States would maintain its naval blockade on Iranian ports until a formal and fully certified agreement is signed, instructing negotiators not to rush the process.
As reported by The Times of India, Fed Governor Waller said on May 22 that although he prefers the Federal Reserve should hold rates unless more clarity emerges on impacts of the Iran war, he warned that the next Fed move could be a rate hike unless inflation starts coming down soon. Investors were pricing in a full quarter point rate hike by December for the first time as of May 22. Market participants now price in a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve for later in December, with higher interest rates reducing the appeal of non-interest-yielding metals as investors divert towards assets like bonds and currencies. The analysis notes that long-term yields are rising on inflation risk premium, massive AI Capex spending and fiscal overhang, which may limit gold's upside even if the conflict ends. Recent US economic data, combined with resilient labor market conditions and elevated energy prices, have strengthened speculation that policymakers could eventually revisit rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist.
According to technical analysis from FastBull, Gold remains confined within a broad descending channel on the 4-hour chart, reflecting a corrective structure that has dominated price action since mid-April. Despite the prevailing bearish channel formation, recent price behaviour suggests that bullish momentum is gradually rebuilding after buyers successfully defended the lower boundary of the pattern near the $4,440–$4,460 support region. The sharp rebound from that zone indicates that dip buyers remain active, particularly as prices attempt to reclaim ground above the $4,550 handle. Immediate resistance is seen around the $4,600–$4,620 region, which aligns with a previous breakdown zone and short-term structural resistance. A sustained move above this barrier would improve near-term sentiment and expose the upper trendline resistance of the descending channel near the $4,680–$4,700 area. On the downside, the lower boundary of the channel continues to represent critical structural support, with a break below the $4,500–$4,480 zone weakening the current recovery narrative and placing the recent swing low around $4,440 back into focus.
