Gold prices on Tuesday rose by ₹439 to ₹1,59,840 per 10 grams in domestic futures trade as speculators created fresh positions on a firm spot demand, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, gold contracts for June delivery traded higher by ₹439, or 0.28 per cent, at ₹1,59,840 per 10 grams in a business turnover of 1,076 lots. However, globally, gold futures fell 0.40 per cent to $4,548.61 per ounce in New York, showing mixed signals across markets.
Gold prices steadied on Monday as dip-buying helped the market recover from earlier losses, after the metal slipped to a more than one-month low amid rising oil-driven inflation concerns and expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Spot gold was steady at $4,536.45 per ounce, as of 0241 GMT, following a drop to its lowest level in more than 1-1/2 months earlier in the session. US gold futures for June delivery lost 0.5% to $4,539.90, showing some recovery from the session's lows. According to Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, "We're seeing a bit of bounce right now due to profit-taking activities, given the fact that gold itself still continues to remain trapped in this complex sideways range configuration."
With the latest decline, both metals are on track to close the week with heavy losses following last week's sharp selloff. COMEX gold futures declined 3.6% last week, while silver futures fell more than 4%, as analysts attributed the weakness to rising global inflation readings, stronger US economic data and a jump in bond yields. Earlier this week, silver reached the highest level in two months before the recent correction, with the sharp decline following a period where traders appeared to be booking profits following the recent rally that had pushed silver to multi-month highs.
Rising bond yields are creating significant headwinds for precious metals, with benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields climbing to their highest levels since February 2025, while Japanese government bond yields touched levels last seen in 1996. As per Kelvin Wong from OANDA, "Longer-term interest rates potentially are on the rise, which indirectly creates a higher opportunity cost for holding gold." The sharp selloff in global bond markets, combined with rising oil prices, is pressuring bullion prices as investors reassess the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
Markets are increasingly pricing in a US Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end, with a 50% chance of a move by December according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, up from the previous 50-50 probability. Bullion prices were also pressured by expectations that the US Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer, with markets now pricing in a near 50-50 chance of another rate hike this year as inflation risks intensify due to higher energy costs. Investors now await minutes of the Fed's April meeting, due to be released this week, for clues on the central bank's monetary policy direction.
MCX silver slipped below the ₹2.72 lakh mark to trade at ₹2.71 lakh per kg, down ₹605 or 0.22%, underperforming gold amid higher US rate expectations. Adding to the cautious tone, JP Morgan revised its 2026 average gold price forecast lower to ₹5,243 per ounce from ₹5,708, citing weaker near-term demand and persistent rate uncertainty. The bank noted that "Gold is stuck in a technical no-man's land, above the 200-day moving average but capped below the 50-day moving average," highlighting that Fed policy expectations are keeping investors on the sidelines.
