The Iran ceasefire has provided some relief to American consumers facing soaring fuel costs, though experts warn it may take time for significant price reductions. According to CBS News, gasoline prices rose to $4.16 per gallon on Wednesday, up from $2.98 just before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February and 91 cents higher than a year ago. Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, told CBS News that prices at the pump could start dropping as soon as this weekend, though the decline could initially amount to only a few cents per gallon. He noted that if the situation holds and doesn't worsen, the national average probably has enough room to make a run at falling back below the $4 gallon mark, but it would probably take a couple of weeks for this to occur.
Crude oil prices cooled to near the $96 per barrel region during early market hours on Friday, April 10, after Israel announced its plans to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. According to a CNN report, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has directed his Cabinet to begin 'direct negotiations' with Lebanon as soon as possible, with the country planning to disarm the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. As reported by Upstox, Netanyahu stated that in light of Lebanon's repeated requests to open direct negotiations with Israel, he instructed the cabinet to begin direct negotiations with Lebanon as soon as possible.
As of 7:30 am (IST) on Friday, April 10, Brent crude oil futures were trading 0.09% higher at $96.48 per bbl, compared to $96.40 per bbl at the previous commodity market close, according to Investing.com data. The US-based WTI crude oil futures were trading 0.88% higher at $98.71 per bbl as of 7:31 am (IST) on Friday, compared to $97.87 per bbl at the previous market close. This represents a significant cooling from Thursday's session when Brent crude oil prices surged to $99.5 per bbl, closing in on the psychological level of $100 per bbl. Global oil prices fell below $95 a barrel on Wednesday, down from their levels before the two-week ceasefire but still sharply elevated from the $65 to $75 range for crude in the days leading up to the conflict in late February.
Despite the Iran ceasefire, concerns about the Strait of Hormuz remain tenuous, with the situation in the vital Persian Gulf waterway continuing to impact global energy markets. According to CNN, Iranian media outlets say Tehran is suspending tanker traffic through the strait and considering withdrawing from the deal with Washington over Israeli attacks in Lebanon. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said President Trump is aware of reports saying the conduit has been closed, but said the reports "are false." Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at investment research firm Oxford Economics, told CBS News that the ceasefire, if it sticks, would anticipate that gas prices at least stabilize, if not go lower, but it's going to really depend on the global energy market's perception of the safety of going through the Strait of Hormuz.
Economic experts have provided optimistic predictions for future fuel price trends, with Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicting that if oil prices stabilize at around $90 per barrel over the next few weeks, gasoline prices will continue to retreat and settle around $3.75 a gallon. By the end of the year, he expects oil to drop to around $80 a barrel and for U.S. gas prices to hover around $3.50 a gallon. As reported by CBS News, Zandi noted that "I don't think there is any going back to sub-$3 a gallon for a while." However, Patrick De Haan warned that any drop in gas prices could quickly reverse if the ceasefire deal unravels, stating that if there's an abrupt halt or re-escalation, the decreases will stop, and prices could start to trend back up again.
