HDFC Bank is set to announce its Q4 results today, 18 April 2026, with the board of directors also considering a dividend for financial year 2025-2026. The bank will report its earnings after the resignation of Part-time Chairman and Independent Director Atanu Chakraborty in March. Two other private banks - ICICI Bank and YES Bank - will also report their Q4 results today. The banking sector is expected to report steady earnings in Q4 FY26, with modest revenue growth, stable-to-slightly weaker net interest margin (NIM), lower treasury gains and benign asset quality. Investors will watch out for HDFC Bank's Q4 results with key focus on margins, credit growth, asset quality and macroeconomic risks from the US-Iran war.
Indian banks are expected to report a steady profit rise in the January-March quarter, aided by credit growth and liquidity buffers, according to The Economic Times. Private banks are likely to report about 8%-12% year-on-year profit rise, while state-run lenders may report an advance of about 2%, similar to the previous two quarters. Motilal Oswal, Jefferies, PhillipCapital, Elara Capital and Yes Securities aggregate estimates show this divergent performance pattern. Private banks' higher core operating income should cushion margin pressure, while bond yields are expected to weigh more heavily on state-run banks' treasury gains. The earnings season will kick off on 18 April with major private sector lenders, including HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank, announcing their results.
Analysts expect HDFC Bank to report net profit growth in the range of 5-10% YoY, with Motilal Oswal Financial Services expecting net profit to rise 9% to ₹19,200 crore from ₹17,616 crore in the year-ago period. Axis Securities expects HDFC Bank's Q4 net profit to jump 10.3% to ₹19,428 crore from ₹17,616 crore, YoY. NII is expected to grow 3-6% YoY, with Motilal Oswal projecting NII to grow 5% to ₹33,660 crore from ₹32,070 crore. NIMs are likely to remain flat, with repo repricing offset by CRR cut benefits and TD repricing. Pre-Provisions Operating Profit (PPOP) during the quarter is expected to rise 6.8% to ₹28,352 crore from ₹26,537 crore, YoY. HDFC Bank share price ended 0.55% higher at ₹799.90 apiece on the BSE on Friday.
Indian banks are expected to maintain strong asset quality over the next two years, with gross non-performing assets projected at 2.0-2.2% by March 2027, only marginally higher than the estimated historic low of 2.0% as of March 2026, according to Crisil Ratings. The resilience will be led by strong corporate balance sheets, with India Inc's healthier balance sheets serving as key buffers - gearing at 0.53x as of March 31, 2026 and interest coverage at 5.2x in fiscal 2026. A Crisil stress test of 30 sectors covering 65% of rated corporate debt exposed to the conflict shows 23 sectors will see limited impact, while only one sector faces adverse impact, with the seven impacted sectors accounting for less than 7% of rated corporate debt. HDFC Bank may not see any challenge on the asset quality front, while the slippages during the quarter are also likely to remain under control. Asset quality is expected to remain stable, with Gross Non-Performing Assets (NPA) ratio in Q4FY26 flat at 1.2% as against 1.2% in the previous quarter, while Net NPA ratio also flat sequentially at 0.4%.
Indian banks demonstrated significant improvement in regulatory compliance during FY26, with penalties imposed by the Reserve Bank of India declining by 37% to ₹19.8 crore compared to ₹31.4 crore in FY25, according to data compiled by Mint. The number of penalties remained unchanged at 35, indicating that banks are becoming more disciplined in adhering to regulatory norms. The most common violations included failure to comply with KYC (know your customer) norms, not categorizing customers on the basis of risk, allotting multiple customer IDs instead of a unique one, and not transferring unclaimed deposits to the Depositor Education and Awareness Fund. While the failure to transfer unclaimed deposits and categorize risks point to negligence, other violations such as sanctioning loans with a director's relative as guarantor and declaring dividends without prior RBI permission raise more serious concerns.
