A comprehensive ET Wealth-Crisil SIP Study 2026 has revealed that 10-year SIP investors have zero chance of losing money, while 4-year investors have an 80% probability of earning over 10% returns. The study analyzed 295 actively managed, diversified equity schemes with a two-year track record, finding that 26% of schemes haven't made any money in the last two years if investors started their SIPs then. Only 1% of schemes have made returns in excess of 10% for investors who began their SIPs two years ago. The study included only diversified, actively-managed equity schemes with continuous NAV history dating back to at least January 1, 2011, with SIP tenures ranging from 1 to 10 years. This year's study added a new dimension by examining how market crashes impact SIP performance and recovery timelines.
Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience during market volatility, with SIP inflows crossing ₹31,000 crores in April 2026. The ET Wealth-Crisil SIP Study 2026 reveals that average SIP returns stabilize at around 15% beyond the 5-year mark, suggesting that longer holding periods reduce outcome variation rather than delivering higher returns. During the 2020 Covid crash, one-year SIP investors saw average returns crash to -50.3% at the trough on March 23, 2020, falling 66.6 percentage points from pre-crash levels. However, recovery accelerated with 2-year SIPs falling to -30.4%, 3-year SIPs to -20.9%, 4-year SIPs to -13.1%, and 5-year SIPs to -8.8%. Remarkably, 8 and 9-year SIP investors remained in positive territory even at the market's lowest point, with 9-year investors returning to positive territory in just 2 days after the crash.
One of the most significant mistakes investors make with SIPs is maintaining constant contribution amounts over extended periods. As reported by Mint, when inflation rises, lifestyle changes, and salary increases occur, investors should consider increasing their SIP contributions. The analysis demonstrates the power of step-up SIPs through a practical example: a monthly SIP of ₹5,000 for 10 years in an equity mutual fund with 12% annual returns can build a total corpus of approximately ₹11 lakh with an investment of ₹6 lakh. However, increasing the SIP amount by 10% annually can grow the total wealth to nearly ₹16 lakh, representing an additional ₹5 lakh in returns from just ₹4 lakh extra investment. This strategy becomes particularly relevant as households face cost-of-living inflation that may exceed the 4-5% CPI number.
The study reveals significant differences in SIP performance across fund categories, with small-cap funds having a 41.8% chance of earning at least 20% returns if continued for 10 years, while mid-cap funds have a 17.3% chance of generating returns in excess of 20%. In sharp contrast, large-cap funds have virtually no chance of delivering such returns over a 10-year period, with the category maintaining an average 10-year return of around 13.5%. The probability of earning over 20% returns falls sharply as SIP tenures increase, with 1-year SIPs having the highest probability at 37.8%, while 10-year SIPs drop to 8.9%. Large-cap funds offer a steady, defensive option with consistent lower returns but provide better downside protection and are less likely to deliver peak returns that investors may be unable to stick with over the long term.
The study reveals that time in the market protects not just returns but investor behavior during market crashes. As reported by ET Wealth, investors who have been in the market for 7 years or more barely felt the crash when their portfolio showed 12% and markets crashed to 9-10%. In contrast, new investors with portfolios showing minus returns are more likely to panic and stop their SIPs. The ET Wealth-Crisil SIP Study 2026 found that barely one-third of investors stay with the exact same SIP for a full decade without any interruption, but 80% of investors stay in the SIP journey if those who paused or switched funds are included. Prabin Agarwal of Siliguri reports that just 18% of his firm's SIPs run for more than 10 years, highlighting that completing 10 years in an SIP is more about behavior and discipline than returns alone. The study emphasizes that investor behavior does not always reflect financial comfort, with even experienced investors often reacting emotionally during sharp corrections, though they generally recover discipline quickly.
According to the analysis from Mint, the expense ratio charged by mutual fund houses can substantially impact long-term returns over time. The report compares two equity mutual funds with different expense ratios: Fund A with 0.5% expense ratio and Fund B with 1% expense ratio, both generating 12% annual returns before expenses. After 10 years of investment, Fund A can create a corpus of approximately ₹10.9 lakh from ₹6 lakh investment, while Fund B will grow to only ₹10.6 lakh. This creates a difference of nearly ₹30,000, demonstrating how even small differences in expense ratios can significantly impact long-term wealth creation. Experts emphasize that holding steady during crises is crucial, as investors who sold during previous market downturns lost twice - they sold low and missed the recovery.
