Indian initial public offerings are positioned for a strong recovery in the latter half of the year, according to Citigroup Inc. analysis. The investment bank anticipates deal volumes will meet or surpass last year's performance, moving beyond the challenging start that saw foreign investors withdraw capital and the rupee slide. As reported by Business Standard, about $3.5 billion has been raised in IPOs this year, compared with $22.4 billion in all of 2025, when India was the world's third-biggest IPO market. "There remains a long runway for deal execution, with full-year volumes likely to be at least in line with last year and potentially 5% or 10% higher," said Arvind Vashistha, Citigroup's India head of equity capital markets. According to Citigroup's analysis, over the past two years, 60%–70% of issuance has been concentrated in the final quarter, and current conditions suggest a similar trajectory.
A significant portion of the recovery depends on two major listings: Jio Platforms Ltd.'s potential record-breaking first-time share sale and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.'s long-delayed listing. According to Citigroup's India head of equity capital markets Arvind Vashistha, over the past two years, 60%–70% of issuance has been concentrated in the final quarter, and current conditions suggest a similar trajectory. Vashistha noted that full-year volumes likely to be at least in line with last year and potentially 5% or 10% higher. The Jio Platforms listing is proving increasingly challenging, while the National Stock Exchange listing remains long-delayed, making these two listings crucial for the market's recovery trajectory.
For foreign investors exploring India's market opportunities, key themes include the country's positioning in artificial intelligence and its impact on employment and consumption. As reported by Business Standard, while these factors will shape capital flows, they won't derail issuance activity. The analysis suggests that foreign investors are increasingly interested in India's AI potential and its broader economic implications. According to Citigroup's India head of equity capital markets Arvind Vashistha, for foreign investors looking at India, interesting themes include the country's positioning in artificial intelligence and its impact on employment and consumption, which will shape capital flows but won't derail issuance activity.
On the mergers and acquisitions front, Citigroup's India head of investment banking Rahul Saraf expects more deals to emerge as multinationals reassess portfolios and divest non-core assets. Recent examples include Novartis AG selling a majority stake in its Indian unit in February, FMC Corp. offloading its local business, and Paris airport operator ADP selling a stake in GMR Airports Ltd. On the outbound front, Saraf noted that India is increasingly a natural buyer, with Indian companies retaining capacity and willingness to pursue large, strategic acquisitions. An example is Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. agreeing to acquire New York-listed women's healthcare company Organon & Co. at an enterprise valuation of $11.75 billion, one of the biggest overseas deals by an Indian company. Saraf explained that Indian companies retain both the capacity and the willingness to pursue large, strategic acquisitions—particularly where there is a clear industrial rationale such as geographic expansion, capability building, or cost optimization.
Despite the positive outlook, significant challenges remain, including the impact of Middle East war and energy supply disruptions. As reported by Business Standard, India is the world's third-largest oil importer and heavily reliant on energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked for more than two months. The uncertainty has led to increased foreign outflows and rupee pressure, with the country's Sensex stock index down 11% this year. India has been taking extreme measures to cushion itself, including tightening gold imports, banning sugar exports, telling some people to work from home to save fuel, and proposing tax cuts. The increase in energy bills has led to a surge in foreign outflows and put pressure on the rupee, which has hit a record low. According to Citigroup's India head of investment banking Rahul Saraf, the uncertainty has widened the gap between buyer and seller expectations on deals, with deals becoming more selective, greater scrutiny on valuation, diligence, and downside protection. However, Saraf noted that while markets have softened in the short term, the broader expectation is for stabilization and recovery.
