According to The Economic Times, Geojit Investments' Chief Market Strategist Anand James expects the Nifty to remain stable with controlled movements rather than sharp volatility as the June derivatives series approaches expiry. The Nifty has extended gains for a third consecutive week, but momentum is flattening near the 24,200-24,300 zone with price consolidating around the pivot band. Seasonality remains supportive as June has historically closed positive ~60% of the time, with July showing a ~70% probability of gains and ~2% average returns, maintaining a constructive broader trend bias.
As reported by The Economic Times, the long short ratio FII index futures has risen to 15.2, the highest since late April, thanks to a 9% rise in FII longs on Friday and a week-on-week rise by 29%. However, the short position, which is more than 5 times that of longs, rose 3.3%, indicating that while tactical positioning has begun, smart money continues to stick with the short side. The pace of FII selling appears to be slowing down now amid easing crude oil prices, though significant short covering has yet to materialize.
According to The Economic Times, metal stocks have clearly slipped into a weak technical phase with both index-level and stock-specific signals pointing to further downside risk. On the Nifty Metal index, the weekly chart has triggered a bearish MACD crossover, indicating loss of momentum after the recent upmove. Prices are coming off a broadening wedge pattern, suggesting a potential move toward the lower boundary near 11,850, which coincides with a key weekly supertrend support. Frontline names such as Nalco, Tata Steel, Hindustan Zinc, Jindal Steel, JSW Steel, and SAIL have already broken below critical support levels, with derivative data showing nearly 80% of constituents witnessing long unwinding.
As reported by The Economic Times, Vedanta shares fell 11% in the week amid promoter entity stake sale, with Friday's fall pulling the stock back a little over 25% from May's peak. The stock is also at the lower bollinger band, but neither shows relief right away with oscillators continuing to point towards more downsides. Horizontal support at 269 raises hopes of a slow down in the selling spree, but the favoured view expects this region to give away. We feel that 281 is the level to clear to shrug off bearishness.
According to The Economic Times, JK Paper is showing early signs of a bullish reversal after a healthy pullback within a broader uptrend, with price retracing to the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 340 and consolidation around this level suggesting selling pressure is getting absorbed. M&M is showing strong signs of a multi-timeframe bullish reversal, supported by a Supertrend breakout on the daily chart and a weekly MACD signal line crossover, with the setup building a strong base for a potential upside continuation toward 3300.
