Iran's newly chosen Supreme Leader Khamenei has declared that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and vowed to open new fronts in the conflict if US and Israeli attacks don't stop, sending WTI crude oil prices near $100 per barrel once again. As per IBKR Macroeconomics, this escalation represents a substantial headwind to an investor community that was hoping the battle would end promptly. The negative impacts on corporate margins, inflation expectations, rate-cut prospects and yields are sparking market volatility, leaving participants with few places to hide. Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel with Brent crude climbing above $100 and US WTI above $94, raising concerns about inflation and potential Fed policy responses. Iraq closed its oil port terminals after strikes on two tankers off its coast, while Iran warned crude could hit $200 a barrel and called for the Strait of Hormuz to stay closed. The International Energy Agency announced a record release of energy reserves to offset the blockade, though it did little to calm markets.
Anthropic (ANTH.PVT) is facing significant challenges as the AI startup filed a lawsuit against the Department of Defense on Monday to block a ban on the company after the Pentagon labeled it a "supply chain risk for national security." Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei vowed to fight the designation, which is usually reserved for foreign adversaries, writing that Anthropic has "no choice but to challenge it in court." According to Bloomberg, one of Anthropic's attorneys, Michael Mongan, said the firm has already seen some of its enterprise customers pull or shorten contracts, while others have expressed doubt about working with the company. The judge moved up the hearing for the case from April 3 to March 24. In a significant move, Microsoft (MSFT) has also weighed in on the issue, filing a court brief supporting Anthropic's lawsuit, stating the action against Anthropic "directly impacted" it and could delay IT services contracts.
The negative consequences of the Middle East war are hitting private markets, where loftier yields are pressuring firms and borrowers that are increasingly vulnerable to heavier borrowing costs. As per IBKR Macroeconomics, new loans and existing floating rate debt must now be adjusted based on today's rates, and the longer the conflict persists, the greater the likelihood is that we'll see subdued earnings performances as well as missed payments and defaults that together will weigh on cash distributions for both shareholders and creditors. Private credit funds at Morgan Stanley (MS 4.05%) and others are limiting withdrawals amid rising investor anxiety, making the broader economic outlook harder to read. The chance that we'll experience a 3-handle in March's Consumer Price Index is rising by the day, and that would force the Fed's hand, marking a substantial risk for portfolios of all kinds.
Until then, market participants are expected to stay cautious while selectively accumulating stocks at more reasonable valuations. Speaking to ET Now, Prateek Agarwal, MD & CEO, MOAMC emphasized that geopolitical shocks typically push valuations lower as uncertainty rises, but they often create opportunities once clarity emerges. "When such situations arise, uncertainty rises sharply and markets price in higher risk. Valuations fall below long-term averages, which can eventually set the stage for strong outcomes once uncertainty fades. The key question is how long this uncertainty lasts. For us, the biggest issue is continuity of trade and whether ships can move through Hormuz. If that happens, oil prices could fall significantly and markets can stabilise." The impact of the ongoing crisis is already being felt in parts of the economy, with several companies disclosing disruptions due to reduced gas availability as supplies are diverted toward domestic use.
Market experts have identified nine key stocks for trading amid the current tech correction and broader market volatility. As reported by Moneycontrol, these recommendations come from technical analysts at JM Financial Services, Choice Broking, and Samco Securities, providing diverse investment opportunities during the uncertain geopolitical environment. The recommendations reflect a cautious but selective approach to capital deployment as the benchmark indices remain under pressure, falling nearly 1 percent on March 12 following the rise in oil prices amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. U.S. stocks fell sharply Thursday as oil prices rose above $100 a barrel again, with the Dow dropping more than 1.4% points, the Nasdaq falling 1.4%, and the S&P 500 losing 1.2% by early afternoon.
Ajanta Pharma emerges as a top recommendation with a current market price of ₹3,119.5. According to JM Financial Services analysis, the stock has decisively broken out above the long-standing resistance zone of ₹3,020–3,080 that has been in place since October 2024. The technical setup shows strong volume participation and momentum indicators remaining in bullish territory, with target prices of ₹3,381 and ₹3,450 and a stop-loss at ₹2,945.
