Wedbush's Dan Ives has projected that a Tesla-SpaceX merger has better-than-80% odds within the next year and a half. According to reports from Wedbush, Ives argues the combined firm could become the world's largest company by market value. The analyst made similar predictions to CNBC in July, putting better-than-80% odds on SpaceX taking over Tesla, which topped the 69% chance Kalshi's prediction market assigned to a merger before 2028. Ives has now explicitly stated that "Tesla and SpaceX ultimately merge" as part of his latest analysis.
Ives argued that Tesla and SpaceX are converging on shared technology and data infrastructure. As reported by Wedbush, the two Elon Musk-led firms share more than just a founder, with a merger giving investors exposure to Tesla's AI ambitions and SpaceX's rocket and satellite business under one ticker. Ives has described physical AI, meaning autonomous technology and robotics, as the industry's biggest prize, tying the Tesla-SpaceX case directly to that theme. The convergence extends beyond traditional automotive and aerospace sectors into cutting-edge AI and space technology applications.
The remarks came during a wider debate about whether the AI-driven bull market can keep climbing. According to reports from Wedbush, Ives and Fundstrat's Tom Lee were responding to a selloff that had pushed semiconductor stocks down about 19% from their highs, while the S&P 500 sat only 2.6% off its record. Ives has built his bull case partly on the U.S.-China chip gap, stating that demand for AI chips outstrips supply by roughly 13 to 1, expecting that gap to persist for years. This supply-demand imbalance continues to support Ives's bullish outlook on AI-related investments.
Ives did not detail how a merger would be structured or when shareholders might vote on it. As reported by Wedbush, whether Musk moves toward combining a public automaker with a private, rocket-launching AI company remains an open question. The regulatory implications of combining two companies of that size also remain unclear, adding complexity to any potential merger scenario. SpaceX's own stock has experienced significant volatility since its June debut, with one BeInCrypto analysis comparing this pattern to Meta's 2012 crash, highlighting the market's uncertainty around such high-profile merger scenarios.
