Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on Saatvik Green Energy Ltd. with a Buy rating and set a target price of ₹565, implying a potential upside of 26% from current levels. According to reports from CNBC TV18, shares gained more than 7% on Tuesday, July 14, following the brokerage's positive recommendation. For its bull case scenario, Motilal Oswal projects an even higher target price of ₹652 by FY28, implying a potential upside of 45% from current levels. The stock climbed 7.6% to ₹483.30 per share on the NSE during the session, though it later gave up part of the gains amid profit booking and was trading at ₹473.65, up 5.43%, at around 12:15 p.m.
India is entering a major power investment cycle with an estimated ₹40 lakh crore opportunity across the value chain through FY32, according to Motilal Oswal. Solar energy is expected to be a primary driver, contributing approximately 40% of the country's total installed power capacity by that time. "Solar growth has been led by the commercial & industrial (C&I), rooftop solar, and PM-KUSUM segments, which are expected to account for over 50% of annual solar additions from FY27 onward," as noted in the research report. This massive market opportunity positions Saatvik Green strategically to capitalize on the growing demand for solar solutions.
As of FY26 end, Saatvik Green had an installed module manufacturing capacity of 4.8GW at its Ambala facility in Haryana. The company is expanding its module manufacturing capacity by an additional 4GW and is also entering cell manufacturing with a planned capacity of 6GW. According to the latest brokerage report, Saatvik Green's module/cell manufacturing capacities are likely to reach 8.8GW/2.4GW by FY27 and 8.8GW/6GW by FY28. The company also plans to enter the ingot-wafer segment with a proposed capacity of 6GW by FY29, strengthening its backward integration strategy. The substantial capital requirements and execution challenges associated with backward integration are likely to keep supply-side constraints intact through FY30 and beyond, providing competitive advantages for established players like Saatvik Green.
Motilal Oswal expects robust earnings growth over the next two years, projecting revenue, EBITDA and adjusted profit after tax (APAT) to grow at a compound annual rate of 38%, 55% and 44%, respectively, between FY26 and FY28. This growth is expected to be driven by higher module sales, which are estimated to increase from 3.1 GW in FY26 to 3.8 GW in FY27 and 4.9 GW in FY28. A larger share of Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) modules, expected to account for around 56% of sales by FY28, is also likely to improve realisations. The brokerage highlighted that the key upside risks include faster-than-expected scale-up of the new module and cell manufacturing facilities, leading to a meaningful contribution to revenue and margins from FY27, and quicker implementation of government measures to facilitate power purchase agreement (PPA) signings and transmission connectivity for independent power producers (IPPs).
As of March 2026, the company holds a 5.9GW order book valued at almost ₹8,000 crore, providing clear visibility for execution over the next 18 months. This backlog covers 100% of the projected revenue for FY27, ensuring strong revenue visibility. By establishing its own cell manufacturing, the company can enter the more lucrative DCR-compliant module market. This shift, combined with benefits from backward integration, is projected to expand the company's EBITDA margins from 10% in FY27 to 15% by FY28. "We expect EBITDA margins to remain at 10% in FY27 amid industry overcapacity and high input costs, though they should improve to 15% in FY28 as cell operations stabilise and backward integration benefits accrue," said Motilal Oswal. Meanwhile, smaller module players without cell capacities are likely to face weak margins, providing the company with a competitive edge.
The company has demonstrated strong operational efficiency with industry-leading capacity utilisation factor (CUF) of 84% in both FY25 and FY26, reflecting its ability to quickly ramp up new manufacturing facilities. As reported by CNBC TV18, Motilal Oswal values Saatvik Green at a lower 8x FY28 EV/EBITDA multiple due to its smaller scale, lack of an operating track record in solar cell manufacturing and higher dependence on module manufacturing, but believes the current valuation offers an attractive investment opportunity. However, the brokerage also identified key downside risks including intensifying competition from large domestic players, delays in execution or ramp-up of module and cell manufacturing facilities, and slower execution of domestic cell and ingot-wafer capacities, which could lead to a postponement in the implementation of ALMM-III. The share price of Saatvik Green Energy has risen 3% in the last five trading sessions and has surged 18.5% in the last six months, though it dropped 1.3% in the past one month.
