Prabhudas Lilladher has issued a buy rating on Greenpanel Industries with a revised target price of ₹332 in its research report dated May 18, 2026. According to the brokerage's analysis, the recommendation is based on 20x March 2028 earnings valuation. The target price represents a revision from the earlier target of ₹370, reflecting updated earnings estimates and market conditions. The brokerage has cut earnings estimates by 15.1% for FY27 and 10.2% for FY28 while maintaining the buy rating.
The company demonstrated robust operational performance with MDF volume growing by 27.8% year-on-year to 130 KCBM in Q4FY26, as reported by Prabhudas Lilladher. This growth was primarily driven by healthy domestic volume growth of 29.5% YoY, indicating strong demand fundamentals in the domestic market. The company also benefited from Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme incentives of ₹62 million in Q4FY26, which supported MDF margins and provided additional revenue support. Approximately ₹260 million worth of EPCG scheme incentives are yet to be accrued, providing future margin support.
Despite strong volume growth, the company faced significant margin pressures due to raw material cost inflation. According to Prabhudas Lilladher's analysis, chemical prices increased by 40-45% YoY due to supply-chain disruptions and elevated freight costs linked to the Middle East conflict. MDF margins stood at 9.2% in Q4FY26, reflecting the impact of higher input costs. To offset these increases, the company implemented cumulative price hikes of approximately 15% to maintain profitability. Timber prices remained broadly stable during the quarter, while chemical prices account for approximately 40% of raw material costs.
Looking ahead, management expects the domestic MDF industry demand to grow in the mid-teen to high-teen range, with the company likely to grow in line with or ahead of the industry average. As reported by Prabhudas Lilladher, the brokerage has cut earnings estimates by 15.1% for FY27 and 10.2% for FY28 while maintaining the buy rating. The company estimates revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 15.2%/74.6%/219.6% over FY26-28E, with MDF volume CAGR of 19.3%. Management has refrained from providing formal FY27 revenue and margin guidance amid geopolitical uncertainties and volatile input costs.
