According to Prabhudas Lilladher's research report dated August 04, 2026, the brokerage has recommended a hold rating on NOCIL with a target price of ₹179. The stock is currently trading at approximately 26x FY28E EPS, and the brokerage values the company at 27x FY28E EPS to arrive at the target price.
NOCIL delivered impressive quarterly results with revenue of ₹4 billion, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of ₹3.4 billion and consensus estimates of ₹3.5 billion. The revenue growth was 19.9% year-on-year and 22.0% quarter-on-quarter, driven by higher realizations and volume growth. Volumes increased 9% year-on-year, though they declined 3% quarter-on-quarter due to supply chain disruptions affecting certain customer deliveries.
Domestic volumes registered double-digit growth, supported by the implementation of GST 2.0, while export volumes increased at a single-digit pace. Looking ahead, the ₹1.3 billion Dahej expansion remains on track, while the TDQ antioxidant project has entered the customer qualification stage, with commercial contributions expected from Q4FY27, subject to customer approvals. Management has guided for FY27 revenue of ₹14-16 billion, approximately 10% volume growth, and an approximately 10% EBITDA margin.
However, management expects some moderation in demand over the coming quarters, and uncertainty surrounding raw material availability and pricing continues to persist. Excluding TDQ, nearly 25-30% of the company's topline could potentially come under the proposed anti-dumping duty on accelerators. Despite the better-than-expected quarterly performance, Prabhudas Lilladher remains cautious on the medium-term earnings outlook, maintaining their hold recommendation.
