Motilal Oswal has joined Choice Institutional Equities in issuing bullish recommendations on NMDC, with Motilal Oswal recommending a buy rating with a target price of ₹98 in its research report dated August 07, 2026. The brokerage notes that NMDC is uniquely positioned to benefit from India's multi-year steel capacity expansion targets while remaining largely insulated from global iron ore price volatility. At current market price, the stock trades at 5.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA, with Motilal Oswal's target price based on 6.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA. Choice Institutional Equities had previously issued a buy rating with a target price of ₹107 per share, representing a 24.7% upside potential from current levels.
NMDC has revised iron ore prices effective August 8, 2026, with Lump Ore (65.5% Fe, 10-40mm) priced at ₹5,250 per tonne and Fines (64% Fe, -10mm) at ₹4,500 per tonne. As per the latest regulatory filing by the Ministry of Steel, these rates represent a reduction from ₹5,450 per tonne for lump ore and ₹4,700 per tonne for fines in July 2026. The Hyderabad-based state-owned miner announced these revised rates through an exchange filing, establishing the foundational cost for downstream steel producers. Earlier this month, NMDC reported total production of 4.06 million tonnes in July 2026, representing a 31% year-on-year increase and marking the company's best-ever July production performance. The cumulative production for April-July 2026 reached 19.16 million tonnes, significantly higher than 15.09 million tonnes in the corresponding period last year, while sales stood at 15.15 million tonnes.
NMDC delivered exceptional quarterly results for Q4 FY26, with consolidated revenue reaching ₹11,343.13 crore, marking a significant increase from ₹7,004.59 crore in Q4 FY5. The company's net profit surged to ₹2,017.57 crore compared to ₹1,483.18 crore in the previous year, while Earnings Per Share (EPS) improved to ₹2.31 from ₹1.68 in Q4 FY5. For the full financial year FY26, NMDC recorded revenue of ₹32,070.89 crore, a substantial increase from ₹23,905.52 crore in FY5, with net profit rising to ₹7,414.69 crore from ₹6,539.75 crore. The company's annual EPS reached ₹8.47 compared to ₹7.44 in FY5, demonstrating strong operational performance across all quarters.
NMDC maintains a robust financial position with net cash of ₹55 billion as of FY26 and is expected to generate approximately ₹200 billion of operating cash flow over the next two years, supporting the capex plan without overleveraging. The company's market share stands at approximately 16% as India's largest iron ore producer. India's infrastructure-led expansion is expected to lift crude steel capacity to 300 MnT and iron ore demand by ~50% to ~460 MnT by FY31E, creating ~150 MnT of incremental ore demand. As reported by Choice Institutional Equities, approximately 98% of mined ore will be consumed by the steel sector, providing strong demand visibility for NMDC's operations. The company's strategically located assets in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka, combined with high-grade ore and domestic auction-linked pricing, support healthy realizations of ₹4,900–5,300 per tonne.
NMDC shares gained 2.18% to ₹86.77 in today's trading session, demonstrating resilience despite a 'Very Bearish' sentiment noted as of August 3, 2026. The stock is currently trading at ₹86.77, which is away from the 52-week high of ₹97.49 per share. The company has announced a board meeting scheduled for August 14, 2026 to consider unaudited financial results for Q1 FY27, and declared an interim dividend of ₹2.50 per share (250%) with an effective date of February 13, 2026. NMDC also announced a bonus issue in November 2024 with a 2:1 ratio and a stock split in December 2007 changing face value from ₹10 to ₹1.
