Indian equity markets demonstrated strong momentum with Nifty staging a decisive breakout on Friday, ending the day 461 points higher after moving in a narrow range over recent sessions. According to CNBC TV18, the rally was driven by renewed optimism surrounding a potential agreement between the US and Iran, which eased concerns over global crude oil supplies and boosted risk appetite. Market participation remained robust with 443 stocks within the Nifty 500 universe ending higher, indicating broad-based buying rather than concentrated gains in heavyweight stocks. The benchmark indices have shown consistent upward trajectory, with the Nifty approaching the 23,500 level as a key resistance point, while market experts now believe the 23,800 level represents the crucial hurdle that bulls must cross to extend the rally. On the daily chart, the index formed a sizable bullish candle with a noticeable lower wick, indicating strong buying interest at lower levels, as noted by Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities.
Market experts are closely watching the 23,800 level as the key resistance point for Nifty, with multiple analysts now confirming the breakout's significance. Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities noted that the short-term trend has turned positive, with upside targets of 23,800 and 24,100 and immediate support placed around 23,300. Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities expects resistance in the 23,770-23,800 zone, with a sustained move above this range potentially paving the way for a rally towards 23,950 and eventually 24,100. Nilesh Jain of Centrum Finverse believes the Nifty has reclaimed its 21-day moving average and broken out of a narrow consolidation range, with the 50-day moving average near 23,720 as the next key hurdle. LKP Securities' Vatsal Bhuva maintains that the bullish bias remains intact as long as the index holds above the 23,450-23,500 zone, with a close above 23,820 strengthening the positive outlook. The immediate resistance for Nifty is placed in the 23,770-23,800 zone, while on the downside, the immediate support for Nifty is placed in the 23,470-23,450 zone.
Banking and financial stocks continued to outperform the broader market, with Bank Nifty ending the week with gains of more than 4%, closing at 56,815. According to CNBC TV18, the banking index played a crucial role in supporting the benchmark during the first half of the week and later emerged as the key driver of Friday's rally. Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One expects Bank Nifty's outperformance to continue, noting that the Nifty-Bank Nifty ratio remains favourable for banking stocks, indicating the sector could continue leading the market higher. Market analyst Anuj Gupta has provided specific recommendations across multiple sectors, identifying Vodafone Idea, OLA Electric, HDFC Bank, SBI, and Inox Wind as potential opportunities, while also highlighting MTAR Technologies, HAL, BHEL, and Chambal Fertilizer for consideration. Nifty Bank index ended with sharp gains and the positive bias is likely to continue so long as trades above key support zones of 56,500 and 56,000, according to Amol Athawale of Kotak Securities. On the higher side, it could move up to 57,500–58,000, however, below 56,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable.
Among sectoral indices, Nifty Realty emerged as the top performer, followed by Nifty Capital Markets, while Nifty CPSE and Nifty IT were the only sectors that ended in the red. On the stock-specific front, CNBC TV18 reports that Shriram Finance and IndiGo led the gainers, while ONGC and Tech Mahindra were among the laggards. The broader market also participated strongly, with the Nifty Midcap 100 reclaiming its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) and forming a strong bullish candle, signalling buying interest at lower levels. The Nifty Smallcap 100 outperformed both the benchmark and midcap indices and also moved back above its 20-day EMA. Investor sentiment improved after reports suggested progress in negotiations between the US and Iran, raising hopes of a de-escalation in West Asia and easing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies, pushing crude oil prices below the $90-per-barrel mark. Global cues will also remain important, with the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting and US industrial production data likely to provide direction to financial markets, as noted by Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal.
The sharp rebound indicates that investors are increasingly factoring in a favourable geopolitical outcome, even though a formal agreement between the US and Iran is yet to be announced. According to CNBC TV18, analysts believe the near-term trend has turned constructive following Friday's breakout. Key triggers for next week include India's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and this week's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) print, as noted by Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal. Going forward, the benchmark will most likely react to domestic macroeconomic data such as CPI Inflation and later, the Wholesale Price Index inflation; while global cues will also remain pertinent, with developments in the US-Iran negotiations, crude oil price movements and Foreign Institutional Investor flows remaining key factors influencing market sentiment. The NSE Nifty 50 rose 1.99% to close at 23,622.90, up 461.30 points, while the BSE Sensex climbed 2.30% to 75,527.95, gaining 1,695.40 points, with both indices turning positive for the week after earlier declines between Monday and Thursday.
