The markets opened higher on Monday, May 4, 2026, with Nifty surging towards 24,200 and gaining over 200 points from previous levels. According to CNBC TV18, the Nifty Bank index jumped over 550 points to 55,500, while Maruti, Bajaj Auto, Adani Ports and HUL emerged as top gainers. The positive momentum was driven by strong April auto sales data, with Bajaj Auto reporting total sales up 40% at 5.13 lakh units compared to 3.65 lakh units year-on-year, and Maruti Suzuki gaining over 4% after its auto sales numbers. Bajaj Auto's total exports surged 83% to 2.65 lakh units versus 1.45 lakh units in the previous year, while total 2-wheeler sales jumped 38% to 4.39 lakh units.
Despite recent gains, Kotak's Pratik Gupta believes the market may remain largely range-bound over the next year, with limited upside of just 5-7%. As per CNBC TV18, Gupta noted that the upside being limited to just 5-7%, while the downside could be another 5-10% depending on key risks. The Nifty ended April with gains of over 7% and broke its four-month losing streak, according to reports from The Times of India. After touching a low of 22,182 on April 2, the index staged a sharp recovery of more than 2,400 points within just 11 trading sessions. However, after hitting a high of 24,601 on April 21, the index witnessed profit booking at higher levels. Over the past six trading sessions, Nifty has been consolidating within a narrow band of 24,335–23,798, indicating a phase of indecision.
The consolidation pattern can be attributed to rising crude oil prices, uncertainty around geopolitical developments, upcoming election outcomes, and continued weakness in the currency, as reported by The Times of India. Going forward, volatility is expected to remain elevated. The 24,300–24,350 zone will act as an immediate resistance, and a sustained breakout above 24,350 could pave the way for a rally towards 24,500 and 24,700. On the downside, the 23,800–23,750 range will serve as a key support area, with a decisive break below 23,750 potentially opening the door for further downside towards 23,600 and 23,400. As per Zerodha, immediate resistance stands at 24,600, followed by the 25,000–25,150 zone, while support is at 23,800 and then 23,550. The Nifty is currently stuck in the 23,800-24,300 range and breaking above or below that could result in a decisive move.
The banking benchmark index Bank Nifty concluded April with gains of 9.13% and recorded a high of 57,456 on April 21, according to The Times of India. However, the index witnessed a sharp correction of nearly 2,600 points within just six trading sessions following this peak. The index has underperformed frontline indices and continues to trade below its key moving averages, which are all trending downwards. Bank Nifty gave clearer trends than Nifty for April, with the index making two 1%-plus candles on a close-to-close basis: Tuesday at -1.54% and Thursday at -0.98%. The index lost 1,226 points, or 2.19%, for the week, closing at 54,863. The 54,350 level is the key support area, as it coincides with a prior swing low, while the 20-day EMA zone of 55,500–55,600 is expected to act as an immediate resistance. The Nifty Bank index is also surging, jumping over 550 points to 55,500, with the index in focus as Kotak Bank reacts to the results reported over the weekend.
The Nifty IT index has declined nearly 25% in 2026 and remains the only laggard in April, with weak earnings, muted guidance and persistent margin pressures triggering a sharp reset in sector valuations. According to Religare Broking's Ajit Mishra, the Nifty IT PE has declined from around 29 to nearly 20 times, closer to its long-term average of 18-20 times, improving relative attractiveness. However, FY27 growth is expected at just 1-4%, with earnings upgrades unlikely in the near term and further downgrades not ruled out. Companies like Infosys and TCS continue to face challenges in demand visibility and deal conversion, with Infosys projecting 1.5-3.5% growth and HCLTech guiding 1-4% in constant currency terms. The sector is undergoing structural transformation driven by rapid AI adoption and automation, which could have a 14-16% potential revenue impact due to productivity gains. Despite the sector challenges, AI segment has seen strong growth with contribution increasing to 43% from 15% previously, with revenue growth expected to be in the range of 30-35% for FY27 given the high base.
The market appears to be awaiting a clear directional trigger amid mixed signals from multiple factors, according to The Times of India. These include rising crude oil prices, uncertainty around geopolitical developments, upcoming election outcomes, and continued weakness in the currency. The upcoming election results in Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry are expected to provide crucial directional cues for the market in the coming weeks. As per Zerodha, May has a coin-toss type of probability with 14 times in the previous 26 years ending in the positive. With so much geopolitical uncertainty, it is tough to predict how May will perform, making it essential to draw one's own conclusions based on available data. Kotak's Pratik Gupta noted that factors like oil prices, inflation, and monsoon trends will matter far more for investors than political developments in the near term. The Nifty bulls will aim to sustain themselves above the 24,000 mark amidst the election results in five state assemblies, with four days' worth of developments on the Iran crisis to monitor, with crude oil prices still above the $108 a barrel mark.
