According to reports from The Economic Times, ICICI Securities believes the benchmark index Nifty 50 may have reached a durable bottom after an 18-month consolidation period and a 16% correction. The brokerage's analysis suggests the index has navigated multiple headwinds including geopolitical tensions and evolving tariff policies, with the current market movement closely resembling volatility seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While the long-term outlook remains constructive, near-term uncertainties have led to a moderation in the FY27 target to 28,800. The pattern, based on historical trends, suggests the formation of a durable bottom and indicates the potential for the next leg of a bull market.
As reported by The Economic Times, ICICI Securities notes that major corrections in bull markets have typically bottomed out near 17% and found support around the 200-week EMA, often followed by a median rally of about 30% over the next nine to twelve months. Since 1996, instances of four to five consecutive months of market declines have been rare and generally followed by a 30% rally over the subsequent six to twelve months. The brokerage expects strong support around the 21,200 level and anticipates intermittent volatility with any short-term corrections viewed as accumulation opportunities. Similarly, phases of exhaustion in India VIX have historically preceded recoveries, delivering returns of around 25% in the following six months.
According to The Economic Times report, ICICI Securities expects banks, energy names and select midcaps to be likely outperformers in the next market upcycle. The positive outlook is supported by historical observations including phases of exhaustion in India VIX that have historically preceded recoveries, delivering returns of around 25% in the following six months. Major geopolitical escalations have often coincided with market bottoms once uncertainty subsides, with such periods offering strong long-term investment opportunities. In the case of Bank Nifty, post-COVID corrections have typically stabilised in the 20% to 22% range, acting as a base for subsequent gains averaging around 30%. The brokerage expects stocks such as Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, Bank of Baroda, Bajaj Finserv, South Indian Bank and SAM India to outperform, along with Reliance Industries, HPCL, MRPL, NTPC, Tata Power and JSW Energy in the oil, gas and power space.
As reported by The Economic Times, ICICI Securities identifies a meaningful recovery in market breadth as a key signal of a turning point, laying the groundwork for the next phase of growth. Additionally, a decline in the US Dollar index has historically been supportive for emerging markets, driven by expectations of increased foreign institutional inflows. The trajectory is unlikely to be linear, with intermittent bouts of volatility expected, though the brokerage views any short-term corrections as opportunities for investors to accumulate quality stocks and strengthen their medium-term portfolios. Spikes in crude oil prices triggered by geopolitical events have also tended to be temporary, with easing prices often marking a point of market exhaustion and a bottom in equities.
