On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 ended at 24,238 after testing the psychological 24,000-mark during a 200-point fall, as the tug-of-war between bulls and bears continues to dominate market action. According to Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities, the benchmark index has remained stuck within a narrow trading range over the past two sessions, with the market breadth marginally positive as about 1,557 shares saw buying interest compared to 1,415 shares under pressure on the NSE. Despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices, which moved from the lows to a high of $92 per barrel, and despite the depreciation of the Indian rupee, the Nifty has managed to sustain above the 24,000 level, indicating relative outperformance. The index has been moving in a broad range of 23,800-24,400 post the June 15, 2026 breakout, testing both higher and lower ends multiple times but failing to give a decisive breakout.
According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, the Nifty index is forming a triangle pattern on the charts with the range getting narrower slowly, suggesting a lack of directional trend. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures overall market trend strength, was in positive territory till the Nifty hit a high of 24,531 on July 7, after which it started declining. Today, the Directional Index (DI) has once again shown a negative divergence, with the ADX needing to cross the 25-mark for a directional move. The index has formed an NR3 pattern and is stuck within a range, now needing to cross and hold above the 24,250 zone for an upmove towards 24,350 and then 24,450, while support can be seen at 24,100 and then 24,000. Latest technical analysis shows the index is expected to remain sideways unless it closes decisively above 24,300, which could trigger fresh buying momentum. On the downside, 24,000 continues to act as a crucial support level, with a breach below it potentially dragging the index towards 23,800, which coincides with the 20-week moving average.
On the options front, maximum Call OI is at the 24,200 strike, followed by the 25,000 strike, while maximum Put OI is at the 24,200 strike, followed by the 23,000 strike. Call writing is seen at the 24,200 and 24,600 strikes, while Put writing is seen at the 24,200 and 24,100 strikes. Call unwinding of in-the-money (ITM) monthly Put positions points to a cautious undertone and reflects slightly bearish sentiment among market participants. Option data suggests a broader trading range between 23,800 and 24,600, while the immediate range is between 24,000 and 24,400. The Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 24,000-24,400 range in the short term, with the broader structure remaining healthy supporting a buy-on-dips strategy. The index has been consolidating within this range over the past few weeks, with the Nifty 50 expected to trade in the 24,000-24,400 range in the short term, indicating a high probability of eventually moving towards the 24,700-24,800 levels unless there is a drastic change in crude oil prices or the Indian rupee.
The Bank Nifty index ended Wednesday's session on a subdued note, with technical analysts indicating that the index may continue to trade within a range unless it breaks key support or resistance levels. According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, despite the day's decline, Bank Nifty continues to trade above its key short-term and medium-term moving averages, suggesting that the broader trend remains constructive. The Bank Nifty opened marginally lower near the 57,850 level but extended its momentum towards the 58,250 zone in the initial hour of the session. However, it failed to hold at higher levels and gradually drifted towards the 57,800 level during the latter part of the session. It formed a small-bodied candle with a longer upper shadow on the daily chart, indicating selling pressure at higher levels, while multiple supports remain intact at lower zones. The index now has to hold above the 57,750 zone for a bounce towards 58,250 and then 58,500, while on the downside, support is seen at 57,500 and then 57,250. Over the past month, the Bank Nifty has remained trapped in a triangle pattern on the daily chart near the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline that began in February 2026, reflecting a prolonged phase of consolidation. The index closed marginally above its 20-day SMA at 57,827, while continuing to trade comfortably above its 40-day EMA at 57,013, indicating that the broader trend remains constructive.
According to Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities, the benchmark indices continue to form indecisive candlestick patterns, indicating that the current trading range could break in either direction. "However, a meaningful breakout will be confirmed only if the Nifty surpasses 24,500 (Sensex 78,700) or slips below 24,000 (Sensex 76,800) on a closing basis. Until then, the market is likely to remain stock-specific with limited index movement," Chouhan said. He advised investors to use rallies to trim weaker positions while selectively accumulating quality stocks on declines. Vikram Kasat of PL Capital believes broader market direction will be driven by macro and corporate developments in the coming days. Ponmudi R of Enrich Money noted that the index showed signs of weakening momentum during the session. Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking believes after the 3-4 week consolidation in the market, and with the expiry week ahead, we may see a directional breakout in the near future, though the possibility of the Nifty testing 23,800 or lower seems higher for now. For the overall trend to turn favourable, the Nifty would need to breakout above 24,800, while the RSI at 54.05 indicates a neutral trend, suggesting consolidation with a slight positive bias in the near term. Key resistance levels identified at 24,263, 24,344, and 24,421, while support is seen at 24,080, 24,030, and 23,920.
