Multiple brokerages have raised price targets for Dixon Technologies following India's approval of its Vivo joint venture under Press Note 3. Motilal Oswal maintains a buy rating with a target price of ₹16,100, while JPMorgan has raised its target to ₹16,700, as reported by latest market developments. The approval removes a key regulatory overhang and formalizes a large OEM smartphone manufacturing runway, with production expected to ramp from FY27 and accelerate in FY28. Macquarie has reiterated its 'Outperform' rating and raised its target price to ₹16,000 from ₹15,000, citing Dixon's entry into a phase of stronger growth visibility.
Dixon Technologies has received Indian government approval under Press Note 3 for its joint venture with Vivo India, with Dixon holding 51% and Vivo 49% to manufacture Vivo smartphones as an OEM. As reported by Motilal Oswal, this approval is expected to enhance the company's manufacturing capabilities and strengthen its market share in the Android smartphone market in India. The joint venture removes the long-pending overhang on the stock, as through this partnership, Dixon will receive incremental volumes beginning in 3QFY27.
Management expects the Vivo joint venture to produce approximately 6 million devices in FY27 and 20 million in FY28, according to latest company guidance. The venture represents a potential revenue opportunity of around ₹30,000 crore. Vivo currently holds approximately 23% market share in smartphones, and Dixon anticipates that nearly 67% of its volumes will come through this joint venture. Macquarie expects Dixon to manufacture an additional 20 million Vivo smartphones in FY27, followed by another 20 million units each in FY28 and FY29. The brokerage raised its revenue estimates for FY27, FY28 and FY29 by 14%, 25% and 21% respectively, with EBITDA estimates increased by 26%, 20% and 27% over the three-year period.
The Vivo JV can materially improve Dixon's mobile phone volumes from 32 million to about 55 million units and create a stable revenue stream for the mobile segment. According to Business Standard, the key upside from the JV is the outsized gains on the volume front, with Vivo ending CY25 with volumes of 35 million units and the JV expected to account for about two-thirds of total volume. Teena Virmani and Prerit Jain of Motilal Oswal expect the benefits of backward integration to start playing out from H2FY27, with initiatives in displays and camera modules expected to more than offset margin contraction caused by the end of PLI 1.0. Beyond smartphones, Macquarie highlights opportunities in PLI 2.0 for electronics manufacturing, automotive electronics segment entry by adapting camera capabilities for vehicle applications with production expected in FY28, industrial EMS expansion through acquisitions, and deepening partnership with Inventec for data centre hardware manufacturing.
Dixon's consolidated financials show strong growth trajectory with revenue expected to grow from ₹48,872 crore in FY26 to ₹69,874 crore in FY27E and ₹85,885 crore in FY28E, representing 43% growth in FY27E and 22.9% in FY28E. Adjusted net profit is projected to grow from ₹849 crore in FY26 to ₹993 crore in FY27E and ₹1,560 crore in FY28E, with 57% growth expected in FY28E. Macquarie expects Dixon to deliver a 28% revenue CAGR and a 43% earnings-per-share CAGR between FY26 and FY29. The JV drives a 24-39% upgrade to revenue estimates over FY27-29, though earnings-per-share upgrades are lower due to the 51:49 JV structure. Emkay Research believes Dixon's strong return ratios, negative working capital cycle and robust cash generation justify its premium valuation with a 'buy' rating and target price of ₹15,200.
