According to reports from Moneycontrol, Motilal Oswal has issued a buy rating on Coal India with a target price of ₹535 in its research report dated April 07, 2026. The brokerage values the stock at 5.5x FY28E EV/EBITDA, while the current market price indicates the stock is trading at 4.8x on FY28E EV/EBITDA.
As reported by Motilal Oswal, Coal India's production in FY26 declined 1.6% YoY to 768 million tonnes, while offtake was down 3% YoY at 735 million tonnes. The muted volumes were primarily attributed to increased competition from captive/merchant coal producers, subdued thermal power plant demand and high inventory levels. The rising captive output led to a decline in non-coking coal imports, which fell 9% YoY to 170 million tonnes in FY26.
According to the brokerage report, higher power-sector inventories curtailed fresh procurement from Coal India, where plant-level inventory peaked at ~50 million tonnes (~27 days) in May 2025. Dispatches to thermal power plants fell 7% YoY, with thermal power plant share in offtake moderated to ~80% in 11MFY26 (vs. ~85% in FY25). The brokerage expects Coal India to post a modest volume CAGR of ~2% over FY26-28E.
As reported by Motilal Oswal, long-term demand remains supportive with the CEA projecting peak demand at ~363GW by FY30, backed by >40GW of upcoming coal-based capacity. The 20th Electric Power Survey of India estimates peak demand of 277GW in FY27 and 366GW by FY32, despite FY26 demand undershooting due to early monsoon.
