Motilal Oswal has reiterated its 'Sell' rating on Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) with a price target of ₹312 per share, representing a downside of 11.5% from current levels. The brokerage's latest research report dated June 23, 2026 highlights significant challenges at JLR and continued geopolitical uncertainty as key factors driving its cautious stance. Despite the company's ambitious five-year growth strategy, Motilal Oswal's outlook reflects concerns about near-term profitability pressures from rising input costs and ongoing challenges at the luxury vehicle segment.
TMPV's five-year roadmap through FY31 targets a 15% volume CAGR significantly higher than the expected domestic industry growth of 6-7%, as outlined at its recent Analyst Meet. The company plans six new nameplate launches and over 20 refreshes across powertrains, with the bulk of incremental volumes coming from EV+CNG powertrains. Management expects EV demand to remain robust with only 50% currently fulfilled. Key growth enablers include expanding the dealer network to 3,200 outlets from the current 1,669, increasing service centres to over 3,000 from 1,211 currently, and raising annual production capacity to 1.3 million units from 900,000 units. Cost-reduction initiatives across ICE and EV offerings, including higher localisation and value-engineering, are expected to support margins, though near-term profitability may remain under pressure due to sharp rise in input costs.
JLR continues to confront substantial challenges that are expected to weigh on Tata Motors' overall performance. According to Motilal Oswal's latest analysis, weak global demand, elevated cost structures and geopolitical uncertainties are creating significant headwinds. Specific factors include US tariff measures, China's luxury tax impact and slowing demand in key regions that are expected to impact performance. While JLR has initiated a significant cost optimisation programme aimed at reducing costs and lowering breakeven levels, Motilal Oswal believes these measures may only partially offset ongoing headwinds, keeping profitability under pressure in the near term.
While Motilal Oswal maintains its bearish stance, other brokerages present a more optimistic view of TMPV's prospects. Nuvama has issued a 'Buy' rating with the highest target price of ₹470, representing a 33.4% upside potential. Emkay also maintains a positive outlook with a 'Buy' rating and ₹390 target price, offering 10.7% upside. Morgan Stanley assigns an 'Equal Weight' rating with a ₹367 target price for 4.1% upside, while Goldman Sachs remains neutral with a ₹355 target for minimal 0.7% upside. These varying assessments reflect different perspectives on TMPV's ability to achieve its ambitious growth targets despite current market challenges.
Market experts present conflicting views on TMPV's near-term prospects, with Radha Raman Agarwal from Swyom Advisors recommending a 'Hold' position at the current market price of ₹350, citing tailwinds coming the company's way and government cess for electric vehicles as positive factors. However, Sachin Janardan Sarvade from NDTV Profit's Ask Profit show suggests a more cautious approach, noting that the stock is in downtrend currently and making a lower high-low pattern, recommending hold with a strict stop loss of ₹2,890. This divergence reflects the complexity of TMPV's growth strategy amid mixed market signals and ongoing operational challenges.
