Indian equities ended marginally lower on Thursday, 13 August, with Nifty 50 closing at 24,395.85, down 40.10 points or 0.16%, after opening at 24,431.60 and trading between 24,311.40 and 24,431.60. Sensex ended 114 points, or 0.15%, higher at 78,079.96, showing resilience despite intraday volatility. According to MarketSmith India, sentiment remained cautious amid uncertainty over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, even as Brent crude declined 2% to trade near $87 per barrel amid speculations that oil demand may remain weak this year due to slowing global economic growth. The Indian rupee slipped 11 paise to close at 95.44 per dollar compared to its previous close of 95.33. Market breadth was nearly balanced but marginally negative, with 1,688 stocks advancing, 1,698 declining and 112 unchanged, translating into an advance-decline ratio of roughly 0.99:1. Nifty Realty (+0.97%) and FMCG (+0.84%) led gains, while Metals (-1.05%) were the biggest drag, with Private Banks (-0.54%), Financial Services (-0.44%), and Oil & Gas (-0.37%) remaining under pressure.
Sectoral performance remained mixed with Nifty Realty (+0.97%) and FMCG (+0.84%) leading gains, followed by Consumer Durables (+0.45%) and IT (+0.39%). As reported by MarketSmith India, Metals (-1.05%) were the biggest drag, while Private Banks (-0.54%), Financial Services (-0.44%), and Oil & Gas (-0.37%) remained under pressure. Bank Nifty opened on a negative note and remained under pressure throughout the session, closing at 57,635.25, down 250.60 points or 0.43%, despite testing its intraday high near the opening level. The index opened at 57,799.15, touched a high of 57,799.15, slipped to a low of 57,548.60, and closed below its recent highs. Despite the decline, Bank Nifty managed to close above its 21-DMA (57,529.37), 200-DMA (57,476.43), and 50-DMA (57,272.13), keeping the broader recovery structure intact. Price action over recent sessions reflects tight consolidation near 58,000, with repeated rejection at higher levels indicating persistent selling pressure.
AU Small Finance Bank Ltd is recommended as a buy at current price of ₹1,085 with target price of ₹1,250 in two to three months and stop loss at ₹1,030. According to MarketSmith India, the recommendation is based on strong retail banking franchise, diversified secured loan portfolio, healthy deposit growth, growing CASA franchise, strong asset quality, healthy capital adequacy, strong vehicle finance presence, expanding branch network, beneficiary of financial inclusion, improving digital banking capabilities, growing customer base, strong execution track record, improving operating leverage, diversified geographic presence, and long-term credit growth potential. The stock shows P/E ratio: 28.10, 52-week high: ₹1,105.90, and volume: ₹169.28 crore, with technical analysis showing Cup-with-handle base breakout. Key risk factors include exposure to vehicle finance cycle, asset quality deterioration risk, credit cost volatility, interest rate cycle impact, margin pressure from deposit costs, intense banking competition, regulatory risks for SFBs, economic slowdown affecting borrowers, competition for low-cost deposits, integration and execution risks, rural and MSME credit exposure, technology and cybersecurity risks, slower loan growth risk, earnings volatility during stress periods, and valuation risk at premium multiples.
Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd is recommended as a buy at current price of ₹420 with target price of ₹470 in two to three months and stop loss at ₹397. According to MarketSmith India, the recommendation is based on strong power equipment franchise, large order book visibility, beneficiary of power sector capex, strong government backing, thermal power ordering revival, diversified engineering capabilities, opportunities in railways and defence, strong domestic manufacturing base, beneficiary of infrastructure spending, high entry barriers in heavy engineering, improving execution potential, renewable and nuclear opportunities, established customer relationships, operating leverage potential, and long-term electricity demand growth. The stock shows P/E ratio: 57.69, 52-week high: ₹446.50, and volume: ₹602.87 crore, with technical analysis showing Reclaimed its 21-DMA. Key risk factors include project execution delays, working capital intensive business, dependence on government orders, slow customer payment cycles, margin pressure on large projects, high thermal power exposure, raw material cost volatility, order inflow volatility, PSU-related operational constraints, intense industry competition, regulatory and policy risks, capacity utilization risk, supply chain disruptions, earnings recovery execution risk, and valuation risk after strong re-rating.
From a technical perspective, Nifty 50's RSI stands near 53.3, having eased from recent higher levels and slipped below its signal average of around 57.8, suggesting that bullish momentum has moderated without entering oversold territory. The MACD also indicates fading momentum, with the histogram turning marginally negative and the MACD and signal lines converging after the recent positive phase, indicating weakening upside momentum. The index is trading above its 21-SMA at 24,475, 50-SMA at 24,400, and 100-SMA at 24,250, highlighting strong trend support. Technical support is at 24,300-24,250 zone, followed by stronger support around 24,100, while resistance is seen at 24,675-24,770 coinciding with recent swing high and 200-DMA. Immediate support is at the 21-DMA near 24,217, followed by the 200-DMA around 24,000, with stronger support positioned near the 100-DMA at 23,843. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen around 24,675-24,770, with a sustained breakout above this region potentially paving the way toward 24,900–25,000. Bank Nifty's RSI stands at 51.53, marginally below its signal average of 52.11, indicating that momentum has softened but remains above the neutral 50 threshold. Immediate support is seen around 57,500–57,475, where the 21- and 200-DMA are clustered, with resistance initially seen around 58,000-58,200, followed by 58,500-59,000.
